Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday)

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Indeed, none of the latest short term guidance is showing the boundary from the earlier mesolow making it anywhere near far enough north to put the I-20 corridor or north in line for any severe weather tonight. Obviously the whole situation still bears watching for those areas, but the threat appears to be lower than the NAM had indicated earlier. As for south Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida panhandle, those areas need to be on their guard tonight and overnight.
 
GTWXAlum said:
Indeed, none of the latest short term guidance is showing the boundary from the earlier mesolow making it anywhere near far enough north to put the I-20 corridor or north in line for any severe weather tonight. Obviously the whole situation still bears watching for those areas, but the threat appears to be lower than the NAM had indicated earlier. As for south Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida panhandle, those areas need to be on their guard tonight and overnight.
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Yeah, and if the warm front can make it up to I-20 or any further northward, it would have to destabilize things quickly and would have a lot of work to do. My current temp (just north of Birmingham) is only 61.7 with a dew point of 54.

I'm not letting my guard down, though.
 
Bama Ravens said:
Yeah, and if the warm front can make it up to I-20 or any further northward, it would have to destabilize things quickly and would have a lot of work to do. My current temp (just north of Birmingham) is only 61.7 with a dew point of 54.

I'm not letting my guard down, though.
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About the same here, 57 degrees with a DP of 56.
 
Surface destabilization/return flow just isn't happening like forecasted by the aggressive models. Lapse rates are still super steep though....hail likely being the biggest threat for I-20/59 and northward. Tornado threat depends on how far north the warm front makes it....which is still near the coast. Not optimistic for it getting too far north.
 
Kory said:
Surface destabilization/return flow just isn't happening like forecasted by the aggressive models. Lapse rates are still super steep though....hail likely being the biggest threat for I-20/59 and northward. Tornado threat depends on how far north the warm front makes it....which is still near the coast. Not optimistic for it getting too far north.
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Yeah, the NAM is the only model showing an aggressive return north for the warm front. The rest of the short range guidance keeps it south of I-20. We'll see!
 
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Tornado warning for Mobile Co. Hard to get a good look at it though because it's so close to the radar...
 
And just as I say that, a PDS TOR watch has been issued for Alabama with 90/80 tornado probabilities! Along and south of Tuscaloosa to a Birmingham to Anniston line (Jefferson County not in the watch) until 3 AM central
 
GTWXAlum said:
And just as I say that, a PDS TOR watch has been issued for Alabama with 90/80 tornado probabilities! Along and south of Tuscaloosa to a Birmingham to Anniston line (Jefferson County not in the watch) until 3 AM central
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Very much hoping that this is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency! PDS tornado watches freak me out! At nite too!! Right on the edge of this one....scary!!
 
WW 17 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 220050Z - 220900Z
​



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 17
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and southern Alabama
Western and central Florida Panhandle
Small part of southeastern Mississippi
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 650 PM
until 300 AM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
possible

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms now moving into extreme southwestern
Alabama is the first of what likely will be several areas of severe
weather moving across this watch overnight. As a warm front moves
northward across the region, conditions will moisten and destabilize
considerably amidst strong vertical shear. The resulting parameter
space is one often associated with long-lasting, intense tornadoes
rated EF2 or greater.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
north and south of a line from 80 miles north of Mobile AL to 50
miles south of Columbus GA. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 15...WW 16...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Edwards


Read more

Continue reading...
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
Im shocked that they came that far north with the PDS watch interesting.
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Yeah, I am too, honestly. I guess that's basically the extent of the hatched area on the most recent Day 1 though. Makes me wonder if they're gonna go PDS into Georgia later on, despite the probabilities being a little lower there.
 
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