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Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday)

Headed south to Fairhope today. There were some trees down by I-65, near about mile marker 100, give or take a few miles. Did a warned storm come that way this morning?
 
nautile said:
Headed south to Fairhope today. There were some trees down by I-65, near about mile marker 100, give or take a few miles. Did a warned storm come that way this morning?
Click to expand...

Yes


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Not good. Temp is already at 63° and rising. Partly sunny in cleveland. Dewpoint is 62°.

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02d7000c9ef8e4cc232f4a9509d0a623.jpg
 
South Alabama now under a Moderate Risk.

day1probotlk_20170121_2000_torn_prt.gif

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS OF THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to develop by this evening and spread
across the lower Mississippi Valley tonight through Saturday
morning, with a couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds
all possible. Strong thunderstorms with at least some severe-weather
potential are also possible near the southern California coast this
afternoon.

...20Z Outlook Update...

...Southern California coastal areas...
There still appears a window of opportunity for the development of a
low-topped supercell or two in the presence of low-level warm
advection, as a strong 850 mb speed maximum shifts south of the Los
Angeles Basin this afternoon. However, relatively warm mid/upper
level air appears to be generally suppressing deep convective
development where low-level hodographs are enlarged. In the wake of
the digging upper impulse, lower/mid tropospheric cooling may become
more supportive of weak boundary layer instability later this
afternoon and evening. But it may be that this will largely
coincide with veering/weakening of 850 mb flow, and shrinking
low-level hodographs with increasingly negligible severe weather
potential.


...Northwestern Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley...
Convective development, associated with low/mid-level warm advection
on the leading edge of a developing southerly return flow, now
appears underway near lower to middle Texas coastal areas. This
still appears likely to gradually increase in coverage late this
afternoon through tonight, while developing northeastward through
the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Saturday. The risk for severe
hail may be the primary threat with initial development across parts
of upper Texas coastal areas into Louisiana and Mississippi.
However, the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes, probably will increase as activity grows upscale later
tonight, as this increasingly coincides with inland boundary layer
moistening and destabilization, across parts of southeastern
Louisiana into southern Mississippi. Latest model output seems to
suggest a greater likelihood that could occur closer to
Louisiana/Mississippi coastal areas than previously indicated.

..Kerr.. 01/20/2017
 
Ugh on those last two graphics. There are a lot of people still cleaning up in that moderate risk area from this morning. What time are we looking at for Alabama? Tonight? Wee hours of the morning?

And I agree with others who have stated this earlier, thanks to those involved who got Talk Weather back up and running.
 
Richardjacks said:
View attachment 52

This is probably the reason we are seeing the enhanced areas lined up to the northwest and south of Bham. If this is correct, the NAM is likely overdoing the instability...but again that is assuming it is correct.
Click to expand...
It's still a very odd look but hey if they are right more power to them I just feel like its an unnecessary risk to split up those risk areas like that. With that said it's time monitor the actual conditions and see how/if the atmosphere can bounce back.
 
Hot temperatures and dry dewpoints all across south Texas and northeastern Mexico right now. San Antonio 86/33, Laredo 93/33, Corpus Christi 92/38, Brownsville 93/39, Monterrey MX, 89/28, Ciudad Victoria MX 97/34, Tampico MX 95/50. That should set up quite a sizeable EML. Off topic, it's great to see this board back up and running, thanks to those responsible.
 
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