Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday) (4 Viewers)


PerryW

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Amazing low pressure readings across the south with his system. Dalton, GA reported 981.2mb late last night. It's about 5 std deviations off average which equates to a 1 in 30 year event.
I began dedicated weather observing in metro Atlanta in 1973, and the lowest barometric pressure reading I've ever seen in 981.2 mb (28.98") on the afternoon of March 28, 1984......the mesolow that bombed to 975 mb/ 28.80" over South Carolina and spawned the deadly Carolinas Tornado Outbreak (57 dead, 1200 injured).
 

warneagle

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I began dedicated weather observing in metro Atlanta in 1973, and the lowest barometric pressure reading I've ever seen in 981.2 mb (28.98") on the afternoon of March 28, 1984......the mesolow that bombed to 975 mb/ 28.80" over South Carolina and spawned the deadly Carolinas Tornado Outbreak (57 dead, 1200 injured).
And one of the two times before yesterday (I think) that my hometown has ever been under a High Risk.
 

warneagle

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So how fair is it to call yesterday a bust, as far as the high risk goes? I think its a safe assumption that the latter two PDSes (in eastern GA/southern SC and in central FL) busted, since I strongly doubt they'll confirm multiple significant tornadoes there, but I would guess the first PDS did verify, since we know there was at least one EF2+ and it's not inconceivable there could have been another.

What would determine whether or not the High Risk itself was a bust?
 

Equus

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Suspect an upgrade to EF3 tomorrow, but I don't know how many actual frame homes were hit. The Adel tornado has not been rated yet as far as I know, but its most major damage also appears to have been to mobile homes. It's going to take significant frame home damage to get an EF3 out of either, but I suspect that did indeed happen, just not in the survey yet. Aerials indicate very significant damage to all sorts of structures.
 

Kory

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So how fair is it to call yesterday a bust, as far as the high risk goes? I think its a safe assumption that the latter two PDSes (in eastern GA/southern SC and in central FL) busted, since I strongly doubt they'll confirm multiple significant tornadoes there, but I would guess the first PDS did verify, since we know there was at least one EF2+ and it's not inconceivable there could have been another.

What would determine whether or not the High Risk itself was a bust?
It was a bust by their OWN definition of criteria. No doubt, the PDS that included the Albany tornado was warranted. The other two....not so much. Even after TAE's sounding indicating a rather crappy critical angle in the 30s, veer-back-veer issues, and veered surface winds in the warm sector, they went ahead with it given the kinematics and thermos. It back fired, but I can see why they did it. Had everything cooperated, could've easily gotten a few strong to violent tors. But thank goodness it didn't.

HIGH risk: An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
As far Jacksonville NWS comparing this set up to the 4/27/2011 (as they did in Sunday morning's AFD)....they need to pump the brakes. A LOT. Hyperbole does nothing in science.
 
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Natester

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Anytime a tornado affects your or your town. It is a particularly dangerous situation. Those were strong radar rotations possible debris signatures in E C FL but have not seen any reports yet.

Sent from my LGLS770 using TalkWeather mobile app
I don't think any of the storms in central Florida produced any tornadoes although there was an EF1 near Miami very early this morning.
 

warneagle

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Adel tornado has been confirmed EF3, Albany still EF2 for now but they're still surveying. Atlanta confirmed an EF2 in Peach and my home county of Houston.
 
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This is kinda cool


When a tornado battered southern Mississippi over the weekend, it yanked trees off the ground and tore through buildings at William Carey University.

When staffers combed the campus, sifting through the damage, they said they happened upon a stunning scene: An open Bible on the pulpit of the campus church, undisturbed by the surrounding debris.

The open page from Psalm 46, the staffers said, read: "God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble."

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/25/us/bi...s-tornado-trnd0630AMStoryLink&linkId=33904827
 

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