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Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%

  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%

  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
SilentShadow87 said:
Considering how much of an outlier the GFS is at this point, I wouldn't hold my breath. If the Euro verifies we could still see some isolated severe weather, though.
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What I don't understand is how both models have refused to swing in either direction, and then now that you have the NAM which is arguably even a wackier outlier than the GFS and it doesn't want to swing either..
 
Lapse rates and corresponding CAPE values are much healthier for the LA/MS/AL region for Saturday into Sunday on the 00z GFS. Surface dews have consistently run a few degrees too low, so we'll have to see how those trend as it gets closer.
 
The NAM has a significant threat for the Florida peninsula as well, even with its extreme southern track.

Oh lord in heaven what is going on with these models?
 
Kory said:
As for this weekend, some pretty good supercell profiles across the Gulf Coast. But any severe should remain confined to the I-10 corridor.
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Really getting pumped in long range. Both gfs euro show a big pattern change nao ao going positive . That trend continues. It be show time in mid south n Dixie end of March
 
Notable short-wave trough is expected to dig southeast across the
northern Rockies into eastern OK by the end of the day2 period. This
feature will help strengthen mid-level northwesterly flow along a
corridor from northwest TX to the FL Panhandle (500mb speeds
approaching 70kt), though more significant height falls should
spread primarily north of I-20. In response to this strengthening
flow, latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low should track
from northwest TX - southern LA - southwest GA by 11/12z. Veered but
strong LLJ will translate southeast along this corridor which should
prove as the primary instigator for deep convection through the
period. Strong low-level warm advection is expected to aid elevated
convection north of a pronounced front that will advance as far
inland as the I-20 corridor over northeast TX/northwest LA, but
struggle to move very far inland across southern AL/GA.

Robust thunderstorms should develop early in the period across the
Arklatex, beneath the aforementioned LLJ, with parcel ascent likely
rooted around 900mb, yielding MUCAPE on the order 1000-1500 J/kg.
Large hail should be the primary severe threat with these elevated
storms. Partial breaks in cloud cover should aid warm sector heating
such that isolated surface-based supercells are possible south of
the front. Forecast shear profiles are certainly adequate for deep
rotating updrafts and there is some concern that a few tornadoes
could evolve, especially along the central Gulf Coast during the
overnight hours where mid 60s surface dew points can return.
Click to expand...

eZWs0zM.gif
 
CheeselandSkies said:
GFS strongly suggests that St. Patrick's Day weekend into early the following week should be watched closely, although of course the details on location and ceiling of a given day's event are changing wildly from run to run, the general pattern has been consistent for several days now.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Pattern recognition has been throwing red flags about this weekend for a while now. It's a much more favorable pattern than yesterday was..
 
Stay tuned for next weekend into early next week.. this may be a significant one if these models can hold this system together. Too early to call for an outbreak, but this one has my attention..
 
It's obviously way out in clown land, but holy crap at the 06Z GFS run valid for Thursday the 22nd and Friday the 23rd. It takes the second system it has been hinting at for several runs now and loses its mind. Goes from no CAPE over NW TX/SW OK at 18Z Thursday, to almost 2000 j/kg and a PDS TOR hazard type on the soundings valid for 06Z (1AM) Friday! That would be a very scary situation if the soundings looked like that at verification hour! By 18Z Friday it bombs the low out to 969 MB over central NE! It's occluding by then, but the warm sector over parts of AR/MO/MS/AL/TN is portrayed as still quite broad and juicy.
 
rolltide_130 said:
Stay tuned for next weekend into early next week.. this may be a significant one if these models can hold this system together. Too early to call for an outbreak, but this one has my attention..
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always seems to look good from 7 8 days out... then poof it goes as we draw closer... been watching this time frame last three days myself... keep saying to myself... if only this look can hold... im ready for some chasing... but mother nature sure has become weak at her old age lets see how this one plays out......
 
Pattern recognition says it's very likely somebody gets SOMETHING this weekend. The models are terrible of course, but just the overall large scale pattern is setting the stage for the first significant event of the spring somewhere in the US..
 
The Storm Prediction Center has a very good write up about the upcoming period.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120739
SPC AC 120739

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Late-evening model guidance is gradually evolving toward a
potentially more active convective pattern by the end of the
medium-range period. Eastern US trough that will suppress Gulf air
mass should shift east within a few days allowing
higher-moisture-content air mass to begin advancing north into TX
day4-5. Much of the lower latitudes are expected to moisten
significantly into early next week.

Threat of deep convection will begin increasing from the Arklatex
into the TN Valley during the day5-6 time frame. However, timing of
individual short waves will prove extremely difficult as
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian exhibit different solutions to the break
down of the Plains ridge late in the week. While model differences
will certainly extend into early next week, Plains ridge should
progress into the MS Valley by day8. If this occurs there is some
concern organized severe may ultimately materialize across the
southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Will not introduce 15% severe probs
given the uncertainty but this scenario will be monitored closely.

..Darrow.. 03/12/2018
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Severe weather threat as early as Friday, and Saturday with UKMET, EURO, GFS, and CANADIAN all agreeing on a lobe of energy ejecting out of the west from the main trough.
 
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