• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2025

The key to late next week will be exactly what happens with the trough in front of it (the 11th-12th shortwave). If that lead shortwave lifts out into the Ohio Valley or even upper Mid-Atlantic as it comes across, that will leave the surface boundary around and not scour out the Gulf, and there will be substantial and robust moisture return for the system on the 14th. If the 11th-12th wave just slides straight eastward across Dixie, that will send the front deeper into the Gulf, and there will be significant moisture issues with the 14th system. The operational Euro wants to pick Door #2, but the overwhelmingly vast majority of its own ensemble members are in violent disagreement with it. The vast majority of them and many GFS ensemble members side much closer to the operational GFS than the operational Euro. We'll see how it goes, but that is what will determine how it plays out.
 
Need to pay attention to the lead disturbance that comes through 36-48 hours prior to the main system, which will dictate the poleward extent to the evolving warm sector. If that shortwave is too far south/amplified, and the threat gets lowered considerably.

Also, the Euro is too amplified with the main trough IMO. Need that to flatten some as it evolves in the west if you're looking for higher potential.

Edit: Annnnnnnnnnnnnd Fred beat me to it by like 5 seconds.
 
1741212383523.png 1741212407767.png

1741212455668.png 1741212495885.png

1741212519268.png
If there is going to be significant outbreak potential with the MJO cycle this month, it is going to be specifically with the system at the end of next week. That doesn't mean there is going to be an outbreak, but IF there is going to be one with this MJO cycle, it's that specific wave. The global scale is as favorable as it possibly can ever be, with the MJO amping from Africa into the Indian Ocean and then in Phase 2 or crossing right out of Phase 2 into Phase 3 the day of the potential system, and this global-size velocity potential anomaly couplet in place with upward motion over the IO and Asia and a big suppressive wave over the Pacific and Americas with a localized upward motion max right with the synoptic wave itself. Then, the -PDO in place with the strongly positive TNI configuration with below-normal water in the western ENSO regions and significantly above-normal water temps in the eastern ENSO regions. The daily TNI off the CDAS data today is +2.46, which is at the high high end of high-end positive, and it's among some of the highest values I've ever seen while in real-time. The global / hemispheric / teleconnection scale is as set as it ever possibly can be. It doesn't get more favorable than this (which lets you know what the global scale is similar to). It's just a matter of whether or not the individual synoptic waves in the scales below that fully cooperate or not. The larger scale sets up guardrails for the result of the scales below it to fall in between, like the synoptic scale does the same for the mesoscale... but just because the global scale is as aligned as it ever can be doesn't mean the synoptic and mesoscale levels fully cooperate to the 100% fullest. They very well may not. But the potential is there for something of a significant magnitude, and IF it's going to happen, it would be with that specific system late next week.
 
Fred Gossage said:
View attachment 34605 View attachment 34606

View attachment 34607 View attachment 34608

View attachment 34609
If there is going to be significant outbreak potential with the MJO cycle this month, it is going to be specifically with the system at the end of next week. That doesn't mean there is going to be an outbreak, but IF there is going to be one with this MJO cycle, it's that specific wave. The global scale is as favorable as it possibly can ever be, with the MJO amping from Africa into the Indian Ocean and then in Phase 2 or crossing right out of Phase 2 into Phase 3 the day of the potential system, and this global-size velocity potential anomaly couplet in place with upward motion over the IO and Asia and a big suppressive wave over the Pacific and Americas with a localized upward motion max right with the synoptic wave itself. Then, the -PDO in place with the strongly positive TNI configuration with below-normal water in the western ENSO regions and significantly above-normal water temps in the eastern ENSO regions. The daily TNI off the CDAS data today is +2.46, which is at the high high end of high-end positive, and it's among some of the highest values I've ever seen while in real-time. The global / hemispheric / teleconnection scale is as set as it ever possibly can be. It doesn't get more favorable than this (which lets you know what the global scale is similar to). It's just a matter of whether or not the individual synoptic waves in the scales below that fully cooperate or not. The larger scale sets up guardrails for the result of the scales below it to fall in between, like the synoptic scale does the same for the mesoscale... but just because the global scale is as aligned as it ever can be doesn't mean the synoptic and mesoscale levels fully cooperate to the 100% fullest. They very well may not. But the potential is there for something of a significant magnitude, and IF it's going to happen, it would be with that specific system late next week.
Click to expand...
Great explanation as always Fred.

We are supposed to cycle back to a similar background pattern midway through April, correct?
 
ColdFront said:
Great explanation as always Fred.

We are supposed to cycle back to a similar background pattern midway through April, correct?
Click to expand...
Not guaranteed yet, but we are already seeing substantial signs that the MJO will cycle back across similarly to how it is doing now, and has done all winter.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top