Severe Weather 2025

Kds86z said:
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It’s not that people weren’t warned, it’s that they didn’t listen. 3+ inches of rain is very significant regardless of whether it’s “right” or not. And now they’re blaming the service who likely saved more lives in the shadows. Hell, I live in Ohio and knew these floods were going to happen (and watched the FFEs as they were issued). People are just incredibly ignorant and put the blame on whoever they can find besides themselves.
 
OH-IOan said:
It’s not that people weren’t warned, it’s that they didn’t listen. 3+ inches of rain is very significant regardless of whether it’s “right” or not. And now they’re blaming the service who likely saved more lives in the shadows. Hell, I live in Ohio and knew these floods were going to happen (and watched the FFEs as they were issued). People are just incredibly ignorant and put the blame on whoever they can find besides themselves.
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Thanks @OH-IOan
 
Man. It sure is a crazy coincidence something this catastrophic AND preventable would occur in the same year of massive cuts at the NWS. Whether it was directly or indirectly related, there's no question it had an impact.

Five former NWS directors (for both Democrat and Republican administrations) penned an open letter on May 2nd that outlined this exact scenario.

"Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life[...] This could include making fewer highly tailored forecasts, as well as performing less outreach on social media and to local officials and emergency managers. Such outreach has been a major goal of the NWS to make sure communities are better prepared before extreme weather hits. The forecasters in the NWS offices are 'community experts' who have close working relationships with emergency managers, school districts and other local decision-makers. Without those proactive efforts, you’re basically watching the storm."

It's one thing to have meteorologists, who remain stationed at computers and issue warnings, it's a whole other element to actually have enough staff to ensure local communities are safe and accounted for. This conversation belongs in this thread, not hidden away in an echo chamber with people who are already well aware of the issues we're facing.

www.scientificamerican.com

The National Weather Service Is Understaffed and Facing Huge Cuts—That Could Cost Lives

Weather experts warn that staff cuts at the National Weather Service that have been made by the Trump administration are a danger to public safety as tornadoes, hurricanes and heat loom this spring and summer
www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Man. It sure is a crazy coincidence something this catastrophic AND preventable would occur in the same year of massive cuts at the NWS. Whether it was directly or indirectly related, there's no question it had an impact.

Five former NWS directors (for both Democrat and Republican administrations) penned an open letter on May 2nd that outlined this exact scenario.

"Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life[...] This could include making fewer highly tailored forecasts, as well as performing less outreach on social media and to local officials and emergency managers. Such outreach has been a major goal of the NWS to make sure communities are better prepared before extreme weather hits. The forecasters in the NWS offices are 'community experts' who have close working relationships with emergency managers, school districts and other local decision-makers. Without those proactive efforts, you’re basically watching the storm."

It's one thing to have meteorologists, who remain stationed at computers and issue warnings, it's a whole other element to actually have enough staff to ensure local communities are safe and accounted for. This conversation belongs in this thread, not hidden away in an echo chamber with people who are already well aware of the issues we're facing.

www.scientificamerican.com

The National Weather Service Is Understaffed and Facing Huge Cuts—That Could Cost Lives

Weather experts warn that staff cuts at the National Weather Service that have been made by the Trump administration are a danger to public safety as tornadoes, hurricanes and heat loom this spring and summer
www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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I don't disagree that the cuts are going to be a general and prevailing problem, and were poorly and hastily thought out.

However.... in this particular case I'm not sure what more the NWS could have done even with a bigger budget or staff? The premise that all these lives would have been saved belies the fact that the infrastructure and drainage/topography of that area is the main issue here and that the timing of this was literally a worst-case-scenario with it occurring between 1am-6am (when everyone is asleep) on a packed river on a holiday weekend.

Pinpoint forecasting for flash flooding can't get more accurate than what the NWS did here. They issued a flash flood warning after 1am and a flash flood emergency at 4am. But with the infrastructure of that area and the speed with which the water rose, 25-30' in less than an hour for the areas around Hunt and Ingram, this was always going to be a very lethal event unfortunately. That's literally a tsunami of water invading an area with limited road access to escape, let alone early in the morning on a holiday when there's thousands of extra people packed into the area. You're just not going to be able to evacuate everyone in the amount of time they had.

The Guadalupe is so flash flood prone that that area really needs to seriously consider retooling their infrastructure around the river, or at least creating a coastal like system of evacuation routes and warning sirens like they do with tsunami hazard zones.
 
The NWS offices there in the area issued Flood Watches well in advance. It's how the individuals responded to this and all that. I would like to think that the camp coordinators had timely info to make decisions. This didn't come out of nowhere and was well forecasted. I mean if it wasn't forecasted, then why would you have Flood Watches out prior to the event. It was made worse because the ground was already saturated from above normal rainfall prior to.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I think it would be a good idea if campsites along that river reevaluate there location and consider moving it. It's another disaster waiting to happen if they stay there.
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I know some camps around here (this easily could've changed, it's been a long time since I've been to any) that have either a type of PA system or dedicated sirens for lightning storms as well as floods. That being said, putting a camp in a known flood plain is probably a bad idea.
 
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