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Severe Weather 2025

tennessee storm chaser said:
I was thinking the first wave before the main system would prime the pump for rich moisture return …
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If the midweek wave lifts out as it comes across, yes, that's exactly what it will do. If it just slides eastward across, then no, it will send a front into at least part of the Gulf and delay moisture return for the main wave. That's what I was explaining in detail in my first post this afternoon.
 
KevinH said:
Isn’t that what happened in…..

You know….
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That's what happens in most significant severe events here. It's really a prerequisite to have a lead primer wave or two in order to guarantee robust moisture return well inland from the fall until at least early May. It's definitely not specific to any of those spooky dates.
 
Fred Gossage said:
If the midweek wave lifts out as it comes across, yes, that's exactly what it will do. If it just slides eastward across, then no, it will send a front into at least part of the Gulf and delay moisture return for the main wave. That's what I was explaining in detail in my first post this afternoon.
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Got got you. See post , was catching up lol thanx. Definitely got something to watch
 
Fred Gossage said:
That's what happens in most significant severe events here. It's really a prerequisite to have a lead primer wave or two in order to guarantee robust moisture return well inland from the fall until at least early May. It's definitely not specific to any of those spooky dates.
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Alright.
That explains why that set up sounds familiar. I think I heard Spann talk about that once. idk

Always appreciate your posts @Fred Gossage! Keep them coming lol
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
View attachment 34611View attachment 34612
any1 have the james spann meme
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That's one to save to my camera roll. I'm trying to get a AI James spann body cover on the lil yachty stage entrance for events like this. Hopefully it gets completed before this EF6 outbreak :)

This is the video Im trying to get spann template over. Having issues with it generating on these ai websites DMMFLR.gif
 
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74da9c2f-b197-4beb-83c4-6ab810db4ed2.gif

The way that main trough evolves on the 18z GEFS is basically textbook for a widespread severe weather episode. That NW-SE trajectory into California is what you want to see to get a large, progressive, broad-based trough that a) spreads strong shear across a large area and b) provides diffuse forcing for non-linear convection. However, it all hinges on that lead wave not being overly disruptive with moisture return.

I will say that even though the 12z ECMWF AIFS (machine learning version of the Euro) did track that lead wave very far south, because the main system is so strong, there is still a substantial severe weather threat, it just isn't as widespread as this could be if the lead wave lifted further north. However, there is a lot of scenarios where this can still unravel.

I personally think that 12z GFS-derived WRF run should not be shared around, that is irresponsible.
 
andyhb said:
View attachment 34618

The way that main trough evolves on the 18z GEFS is basically textbook for a widespread severe weather episode. That NW-SE trajectory into California is what you want to see to get a large, progressive, broad-based trough that a) spreads strong shear across a large area and b) provides diffuse forcing for non-linear convection. However, it all hinges on that lead wave not being overly disruptive with moisture return.

I will say that even though the 12z ECMWF AIFS (machine learning version of the Euro) did track that lead wave very far south, because the main system is so strong, there is still a substantial severe weather threat, it just isn't as widespread as this could be if the lead wave lifted further north. However, there is a lot of scenarios where this can still unravel.

I personally think that 12z GFS-derived WRF run should not be shared around, that is irresponsible.
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def have a point, and even then the model to model agreement is wild and gfs soundings are actually insane with very little wrong with them, if that holds by like tmr, then I will call my personal alarms
 
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