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Severe Weather 2025

Cyclonic Paracosm said:
def have a point, and even then the model to model agreement is wild and gfs soundings are actually insane with very little wrong with them, if that holds by like tmr, then I will call my personal alarms
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Look, I think we are still very far out on sounding “alarms”. Last system was a prime example of that. It looked pretty darn good far out, but completely fell apart. As Andy alluded to, there are still plenty of scenarios where this could unravel. Especially screenshots from individual model runs this far out.
 
ColdFront said:
Look, I think we are still very far out on sounding “alarms”. Last system was a prime example of that. It looked pretty darn good far out, but completely fall apart. As Andy alluded to, there are still plenty of scenarios where this could unravel.
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I know, I'm waiting another day or 2 to do that, that run was gonna get posted atp considering its like all over wx media now :/.
 
andyhb said:
It only takes one bad actor to share that WRF run around and you have a major headache for various weather outlets trying to message properly.
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The people who succumb to the “sky is falling” hype are the first ones to say that a government agency is lying to them anyway. Those of use in federal, state, local, and private sector positions, that message weather events to the general public, know this problem very well. But one model run being shared will not change anything, because they’ll find five additional items to freak out about.
 
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Although verbatim the moisture is lower (likely because that lead wave goes through pretty far south, followed by the main cyclone quite far to the north), overall I think the 18Z GFS is a more favorable look at 500mb compared to the previous two runs. The flow in the exit region is more westerly/less meridional, and colder temperatures aloft overlap more of the warm sector.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
The people who succumb to the “sky is falling” hype are the first ones to say that a government agency is lying to them anyway. Those of use in federal, state, local, and private sector positions, that message weather events to the general public, know this problem very well. But one model run being shared will not change anything, because they’ll find five additional items to freak out about.
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I mean Spann had to post about it today that people were calling for 4/27/2011 all over again for next week.
 
andyhb said:
I mean Spann had to post about it today that people were calling for 4/27/2011 all over again for next week.
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Waaaaaaaaaaay too far out to be calling this setup that outbreak. I feel like it’s “gonna be like 4/27” gets brought up too much in general. This could very well downtrend which I’m sure it will somewhat.
 
andyhb said:
I mean Spann had to post about it today that people were calling for 4/27/2011 all over again for next week.
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To be fair, I’ve heard him mention something similar before quite a few severe weather events because people on social media are dumb. We had people calling our office before this mornings event being exaggerative and comparing. It’s always going to happen with a certain segment of society.

Again, just my opinion based on experience. It’s ok if we disagree.
 
The 00z GFS contrasted up against the 12z run from earlier today is a good visual example of what Andy and I explained in the afternoon. It is a must for the midweek lead trough to lift out as it moves across, or else, the second one late week that is the attention getter will NOT have proper moisture return for a substantial event. If the lead wave just slides across due eastward, a surface front gets shunted deep southward into the Gulf, and there isn't enough time to lift it back northward before the main wave comes out. It takes the lead wave lifting out so that the frontal boundary washes out near the Gulf Coast or north of it and we keep low-level southerly winds through the entirety of the Gulf behind the lead wave. That would mean the moisture and effective warm front are just sitting there and waiting to come back north the millisecond a southerly low-level jet begins to form out in advance of the main system. A substantial threat won't happen any other way. Point blank, period. The wavelengths between the two shortwaves aren't separated enough in time to allow it to happen otherwise. The lead midweek wave has to act as a primer wave and lift out as it comes across so that a cold front from it isn't sent southward into the Gulf, or significant severe at the end of next week will not have an opportunity to happen.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
What a waste . I mean it’s a good thing course , but as a big fan and enthusiast, afraid whole severe weather season will be this way .
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You don't want what this would have the potential to be if it has a primer wave ahead of it that cooperates and lifts out and allows robust moisture return. As a severe weather enthusiast, you may get understandably excited by storms. There's a reason we're all here on this forum. But trust me when I tell you that you want that Wednesday wave to foul up moisture return and trough amplitude for next Friday, even if you don't realize it at the moment.
 
Fred Gossage said:
You don't want what this would have the potential to be if it has a primer wave ahead of it that cooperates and lifts out and allows robust moisture return. As a severe weather enthusiast, you may get understandably excited by storms. There's a reason we're all here on this forum. But trust me when I tell you that you want that Wednesday wave to foul up moisture return and trough amplitude for next Friday, even if you don't realize it at the moment.
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And this mornings SPC. 4 to 8 day range , explains it just like both you and Andy mentioned
 
Current solutions offered by GFS and Euro, like Andy and Fred said, just wouldn't be particularly conducive, with our candidate primer trough basically just walking across the Gulf Coast states. Still need to watch it as it's in that weird range where the globals like to flip flop really hard at times, but, taken verbatim, I would much prefer the currently advertised solution.
 
Fred Gossage said:
Fred's MJO Cycle post
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Thanks Fred, always appreciate your insight.

Seems all the models I've checked are in agreement for a 3/14 into 3/15 threat. Could you speak to the certainty of this timing? I'm watching closely as I'll be traveling through the entirety of the risk area on 3/15.
 
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172556 said:
Thanks Fred, always appreciate your insight.

Seems all the models are in agreement for a 3/14 into 3/15 threat. Could you speak to the certainty of this timing? I'm watching closely as I'll be traveling through the entirety of the risk area on 3/15.
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The models are not in agreement. Read back through the thread. Lots of uncertainty with this system
 
This really does give some credence to Trey’s (convective chronicles) 2025 prediction and analogs, especially 2006. 4/7/2006 was the infamous 60% tornado probs courtesy of Broyles, centered right over Dixie and the Gallatin TN EF3. As Fred alluded to, if one of these Synoptic set ups cooperated coming up with this background state, a very significant outbreak could be on tap. However, if they don’t cooperate, lining up with Trey’s outlook, it could lead to a slightly below average season.

We are still extremely early in the season I’ll add, but I happened to watch Trey’s prediction video this morning and found his overall prediction interesting.
 
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