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Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

TOR for that Mobile storm.
 
Staring to see a trend with the new close range models. A uptick in strengthening with the low pressure system 21z rap is finishing. And it's down to 1003 mb similar to the long range hrrr, that's not a good sign... Was projected to be 1008-1010 ; now 1003. Yikes that's what I was talking about yesterday
 
Clancy said:
I mean, it does feel like there's an open contract to take out KGWX with the number of tornadoes that skirt by that site.
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Any wind at 5mph or anything really knocks out KGWX. That radar goes down more than I can count.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Staring to see a trend with the new close range models. A uptick in strengthening with the low pressure system 21z rap is finishing. And it's down to 1003 mb similar to the long range hrrr, that's not a good sign... Was projected to be 1008-1010 ; now 1003. Yikes that's what I was talking about yesterday
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Latest GFS bombs it out to 1000 flat. Aren't globals normally conservative with pressures? This could warrant a mod risk
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
The HRRR really wants a lot of supercells in the warm sector tommorow. Wouldnt shock me the least if tommrow a 10% hatched is covering most of the southern half of Alabama. I think your looking at a big day, especially nocturnally in the southern half of Alabama which I'm dreading. Shear increases with no real drop off in instability.
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Great… I live right next door to central/southern AL
 
lake.effect said:
Latest GFS bombs it out to 1000 flat. Aren't globals normally conservative with pressures? This could warrant a mod risk
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It depends, I wouldn't say it warrants a moderate risk..yet. it all depends on how the pieces plug together tommorow. A 1000mb low is a BIGGG difference compared to the 1008-1010 mb that we were seeing. Lots of more ample shear and probably more instability. Its a uptick you don't wanna see.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Staring to see a trend with the new close range models. A uptick in strengthening with the low pressure system 21z rap is finishing. And it's down to 1003 mb similar to the long range hrrr, that's not a good sign... Was projected to be 1008-1010 ; now 1003. Yikes that's what I was talking about yesterday
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Pretty sure you were just saying a day or two ago about how a little drop in pressure could make a big difference!
 
21Z RAP shows a definitive uptrend in risk. Worried the biggest threat might be along the MS/AL border into central AL late overnight with QLCS bands containing supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. NCAR's CAM-based algorithmic probs, which generally do a fairly good job at giving one a broad idea of where the greatest risk will be, suggest tornado threat will be maximized 01-05Z in central MS into AL. Sounding attached from east of Alabaster at 04Z, depicting curved hodograph, sufficient instability and ample SRH. Storms will be developing in the vicinity of a robust LLJ overnight, which may further bolster tornado threat, especially along any boundaries that form. Biggest question, to me, remains the convective evolution. With many of the models depicting a great deal of precipitation across the risk area in the evening, possible it could reduce available instability. However, moisture flow is fairly robust and it's possible the OWS could hold. 18Z HRRR shows a less crowded solution vs RAP, and one that looks especially concerning at that. So, all that said: the uncertainties are there, but this is very much not a setup where one can rest easy because of them. These limiting factors will determine the difference between a less aggressive solution that still presents a threat for QLCS tornadoes, versus a solution with the risk of strong tornadoes from LA all the way into west GA.
1735340497125.png1735340554533.png1735340913816.png1735340982464.png
1735340805584.png1735340844481.png
 
Post from Andrew Lyons about concerns over convective coverage early in the D2 forecast period. In a shellnut: no elevated storms with these obs!
(sounding included)



1735342469614.png
 
Clancy said:
21Z RAP shows a definitive uptrend in risk. Worried the biggest threat might be along the MS/AL border into central AL late overnight with QLCS bands containing supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. NCAR's CAM-based algorithmic probs, which generally do a fairly good job at giving one a broad idea of where the greatest risk will be, suggest tornado threat will be maximized 01-05Z in central MS into AL. Sounding attached from east of Alabaster at 04Z, depicting curved hodograph, sufficient instability and ample SRH. Storms will be developing in the vicinity of a robust LLJ overnight, which may further bolster tornado threat, especially along any boundaries that form. Biggest question, to me, remains the convective evolution. With many of the models depicting a great deal of precipitation across the risk area in the evening, possible it could reduce available instability. However, moisture flow is fairly robust and it's possible the OWS could hold. 18Z HRRR shows a less crowded solution vs RAP, and one that looks especially concerning at that. So, all that said: the uncertainties are there, but this is very much not a setup where one can rest easy because of them. These limiting factors will determine the difference between a less aggressive solution that still presents a threat for QLCS tornadoes, versus a solution with the risk of strong tornadoes from LA all the way into west GA.
View attachment 32073View attachment 32074View attachment 32077View attachment 32079
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Important note too: Any line of storms can leave boundaries as @Clancy says and speed of any big squall line will be critical. Before 2011, I had always assumed that early morning storm lines would limit the overall amount of afternoon/evening coverage. During April 27th, that wasn't the case and that was the biggest lesson/takeaway for me. Of course, this won't feature any early morning storms or big squall line that would limit afternoon/evening storm coverage. But I'm just throwing that out there for future reference.
 
JPWX said:
Important note too: Any line of storms can leave boundaries as @Clancy says and speed of any big squall line will be critical. Before 2011, I had always assumed that early morning storm lines would limit the overall amount of afternoon/evening coverage. During April 27th, that wasn't the case and that was the biggest lesson/takeaway for me. Of course, this won't feature any early morning storms or big squall line that would limit afternoon/evening storm coverage. But I'm just throwing that out there for future reference.
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Yep, and things like the Lower Apps CAD regime that shields north GA from storms can be an enhancing factor - has happened quite a few times in the past few years, leading to a number of tornadoes in the ATL area even when it wasn't the prime risk zone. A similar event to what happened in the late morning of 4/27 occurred on March 2, 2012, where early-day storms in the vicinity of Huntsville enabled the development of numerous supercells (pictured) in northern and central AL, leading to a high-end EF3 crossing the AL/GA line.
1735342959335.png
 
Clancy said:
Post from Andrew Lyons about concerns over convective coverage early in the D2 forecast period. In a shellnut: no elevated storms with these obs!
(sounding included)



View attachment 32080
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It’s basic twitter hive mind psychology at this point - good thing they aren’t drawing the outlooks, because with an environment with as high of a ceiling as tomorrow, I don’t care what the floor is, I want to be prepared for the worst case scenario. It’s literally a win-win scenario - if the worst case occurs you’re prepared to deal with it, and if it doesn’t it didn’t happen in the first place.
 
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