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Severe Weather Threat 12.26-12.29.2024

12:38 PM 12.27.24 TORNADO ON THE GROUND: The tornado is in rural portions of far northern Jackson county north of Wade. Will be crossing US63 into George County towards HWY 613 and 612 if it holds together
 
slenker said:
Hearing some talk about how this should warrant a tornado driven moderate risk.

From what I can tell, Nadocast tends to be a very bullish model, and overhypes events pretty often, but it shouldn’t be entirely discarded either. I believe it’s based on some sort of machine learning algorithm.
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Have they published any sort of data for verification or anything like that? It seems more like a hype machine than an actual model sometimes frankly
 
warneagle said:
Have they published any sort of data for verification or anything like that? It seems more like a hype machine than an actual model sometimes frankly
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According to what I’ve read on the internet and Nadocast itself on twitter: “Tornado probabilities via machine learning post-processing of public weather simulations” also, according to what I’ve read on Reddit, it’s being developed by someone who works for the SPC and he’s constantly tinkering with it to make it better. I love the idea of machine learning being introduced to weather forecasting but obviously it just needs a lot of work and improvement to be consistently seen as a good model.

Edit: I took a brand new Physics class at OSU (Ohio state) this past semester called Big data where we worked with AI learning models, and after doing so I can definitely see the application of it in this sort of thing!
 
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MichelleH said:
WxTwitter is already pulling back because of one of the CAMs not showing it as bad. They fail to realize that winter events DO NOT NEED much instability to have a very, very bad night.
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You know, it really is a shame that you have these “professional” and well-known weather nerds on X that immediately call cease to concern about an upcoming event as soon as models downtrend. It’s almost as if they do it for attention, and it’s getting to the point where people are going to listen and pay less attention. It’s very frustrating and quite annoying honestly. Thank the lord Talk Weather exists!
 
Tanner said:
You know, it really is a shame that you have these “professional” and well-known weather nerds on X that immediately call cease to concern about an upcoming event as soon as models downtrend. It’s almost as if they do it for attention, and it’s getting to the point where people are going to listen and pay less attention. It’s very frustrating and quite annoying honestly. Thank the lord Talk Weather exists!
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Dime a dozen right now over there, unfortunately. Saw it last night and had to just log off.
 
Clancy said:
Just be vigilant and take steps to keep you and your people safe. Your safety is number one priority!
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Always! We hop over to the tornado shelter down the road. I don’t play with tornadoes. Way way too many come here. My kids know the drill, grab pets and bail. I’ve been weather nerdy for well over 20 years so we have a routine. Thank you!
 
DetectiveWX said:
or 2015 with the Christmas Week sequence... (9 years ago ironically)
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Just off the top of my head, in addition to the 2015 events...

2000 had the (first) Tuscaloosa (E)F4.

2010 had an outbreak on New Year's Eve, continuing into New Year's Day 2011. 2012 had one on Christmas Day.

2018 had an outbreak in central Illinois on 12/1 which featured a tornado emergency issued for the EF3 which impacted Taylorville.

While not exactly common, significant December outbreaks are far from unprecedented, even before 2021.
 
Got dicey here around Alexandria yesterday evening but fortunately don't see any major damage from tornadoes in the area. Looks like some trees snapped and a bit of structural damage in rural areas. Things could ramp up here again as soon as tomorrow morning.

December tornadoes are nothing unusual in this area. The Alexandria area was impacted by tornadoes in December 2008, 2012, 2015, especially 2019, and 2022. Seems like here this time of the year perhaps even more active than the spring severe season.
 
The HRRR really wants a lot of supercells in the warm sector tommorow. Wouldnt shock me the least if tommrow a 10% hatched is covering most of the southern half of Alabama. I think your looking at a big day, especially nocturnally in the southern half of Alabama which I'm dreading. Shear increases with no real drop off in instability.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
18Z HRRR shows a pretty volatile environment already in place across much of MS and the eastern "toe" of Louisiana at 19Z tomorrow.
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Yeah I guess the lack of any real EML could be a red flag for potentially having too messy of a storm mode and low-level shear isn't that impressive but in a scenario where storms remain relatively discrete until the LLJ kicks in you might have a problem.
 
Look whose house is right in the zone of the updraft helicity. Yours truly
 

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