Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024

[KCweatherboy]

They’re in a prime environment, unclear if any become surfaced based and take advantage.
View attachment 25420View attachment 25421

Yes they are, will need to be watched closely.

 

[TornadoFan]

20Z DDC sounding shows dewpoints at only 49 degrees.

 

[jiharris0220]

Cells in Texas are staying elevated unsurprisingly. Meanwhile, the hrrr has linear development at 10pm. Which I guess is explained by a sudden increase in forcing despite cap, we’ll see.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

DDC radar loop shows a northeastward-moving fine line to the west of the radar site reversing direction and moving WNW. Is this the dryline "retreating"?

 

[Muwx]

Storms in OK and Texas are toast. Cap is winning out. We will see if anything happens in KS but lots of storm chasers already bailing there as well.

 

[andyhb]

Would think the general lack of strong convection south of the OK/TX line combined with the very strong cap in the 00z OUN sounding would lead to less contamination for tomorrow. There will definitely be an early round of storms, but there will be less of a tendency for moisture to get cut off from returning north. Might be less contamination of the lapse rates as well.

 

[jiharris0220]

Nothing significant was forecasted to occur in Ok and Tx so that’s no surprise. The 10% hatched is in Ks and convection is initiating there as expected. Remains to be seen if they become surfaced base.

 

[MMWX]

 

[Muwx]

Nothing significant was forecasted to occur in Ok and Tx so that’s no surprise. The 10% hatched is in Ks and convection is initiating there as expected. Remains to be seen if they become surfaced base.

A good chunk of the 10# hatched is under a severe thunderstorm watch. It’s certainly possible big storms go up, but the event certainly does not appear to be living up to the ceiling.

 

[jiharris0220]

I don’t know, maybe because the event hasn’t started yet.

 

[TornadoFan]

A good chunk of the 10# hatched is under a severe thunderstorm watch. It’s certainly possible big storms go up, but the event certainly does not appear to be living up to the ceiling.

The event wasn't supposed to start until later tonight.

 

[Muwx]

The event wasn't supposed to start until later tonight.

Then why do we have a tornado watch the is about to expire and a MD for a 90% likely tornado watch the ended up being a severe thunderstorm watch.

 

[Clancy]

Haven't been able to watch this setup much, but I'm guessing the cap has played a big role in limiting convection today?

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[JPWX]

Me over here watching Wxtwitter ***coughs*** ahem TalkWeather

 

[TornadoFan]

Me over here watching Wxtwitter ***coughs*** ahem TalkWeather

Storm chasers be like:

 

[Clancy]

While taking CAMs at face value is about the last thing anyone should do, it looks like parts of the Upper Midwest could be favorable for storms tomorrow afternoon. @CheeselandSkies, y'all may be getting in on some action.

 

[jiharris0220]

I’m just a little confused, for the past 2 days everyone, or at least I thought everyone knew this was a nocturnal threat.
If that cumulus field isn’t up and going by 10pm then it will be safe to say the conditional threat was, well, a conditional threat. Day time convection being non present in Kansas shouldn’t come as a surprise, but I guess events like Apr 27th, 2011 sort of spoiled some people into thinking every event is going to start far earlier than forecasted.

Edit: that line of thunderstorms coming towards me is definitely unexpected, but I’ll take it, lol.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

While taking CAMs at face value is about the last thing anyone should do, it looks like parts of the Upper Midwest could be favorable for storms tomorrow afternoon. @CheeselandSkies, y'all may be getting in on some action.
View attachment 25424

Yes, have made plans to chase. Although the 0Z HRRR threw a wrench in things but not firing a robust second round of supercells like it was before. The first round with its northward-moving cells racing across the warm front and becoming elevated is the only show.