Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[KevinH]

SPC juuuuuust barely mentioning this time period as “predictability too low” in their D4-8 this morning.

For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, models indicate
another large trough developing over the West late in the period,
with moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley
Wednesday/D7 into Thursday/D8. This may setup another severe weather
event from TX into the Southeast Thursday/D8 and beyond, but
predictability is low.

 

[KevinH]

*waits for @Fred Gossage*

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The euro bombs it out at 959. Probably a record for that portion of the Midwest If I had to guess.

Also the LLJ into the gulf is incredible. No issue with transportation of moisture View attachment 18074

Wouldn’t be suprise see trend nw slightly more … looks like west Tennessee now I play Yikes

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Reading that right 0z euro takes it around 958 mb slp over stlouis mo. Yikes

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Reading that right 0z euro takes it around 958 mb slp over stlouis mo. Yikes

Who broke the Euro? That's like the equivalent of the HWRF taking its simulated Typhoon Mangkhut to 777 mb.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Who broke the Euro? That's like the equivalent of the HWRF taking its simulated Typhoon Mangkhut to 777 mb.

It's bizarre because usually the euro is best in these kind of things lol.

Now if it where just the GFS Showing this then I would probably toss lol, it's flip flopped on the evolution of the ejection of the system that's affecting the plains a good bit, while the euro has been rock solid.

GFS's recent systems reliability compared to the euro has been pretty drastic.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It's bizarre because usually the euro is best in these kind of things lol

Larger open warm sector on 0z run also

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS ensembles have the ridge more eastward will the euro is the same, may see some flip flops, this event will be close to ejecting too late or just right on time.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

GFS ensembles have the ridge more eastward will the euro is the same, may see some flip flops, this event will be close to ejecting too late or just right on time.

Think the euro will lead the way don’t call it the king for no reason … this going effect a larger portion of the country from parts midsouth Dixie to lower Ohio valley for sure

 

[KevinH]

It's bizarre because usually the euro is best in these kind of things lol.

Now if it where just the GFS Showing this then I would probably toss lol, it's flip flopped on the evolution of the ejection of the system that's affecting the plains a good bit, while the euro has been rock solid.

GFS's recent systems reliability compared to the euro has been pretty drastic.

When you say… “drastic”….. you mean…??????

 

[Timhsv]

No words even if close to verifying in the long range...and it's the EC

 

[warneagle]

I'll have some of whatever the Euro is having.

 

[Tennie]

I'll have some of whatever the Euro is having.

Either the Euro is like a dog on the scent or it's been doing a cocktail of all manner of very hard drugs. We'll just have to wait and see which one is closer to reality...

 

[KevinH]

Either the Euro is like a dog on the scent or it's been doing a cocktail of all manner of very hard drugs. We'll just have to wait and see which one is closer to reality...

The Euro has been consistent though for a few days though hasn’t it?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The entire operational model set of 7 weather models on weather.us and the CFSv2 model show a large scale significant severe weather outbreak in the eastern US.

 

[Former Member 1430]

The entire operational model set of 7 weather models on weather.us and the CFSv2 model show a large scale significant severe weather outbreak in the eastern US.

What areas are you most concerned about as of now? I realize it’s next to impossible to narrow it down at this range but I figured I would get your take on this system?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

What areas are you most concerned about as of now? I realize it’s next to impossible to narrow it down at this range but I figured I would get your take on this system?

million dollar question is exact path of the slp . for now it looks like amultiple day event covering a large area

 

[JPWX]

Off the 00z Euro. 500mb level, surface to 500mb bulk shear, and 850mb level winds.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

based off the euro alone, with that bomb of a system, wouldnt suprise me if a secondary slp develops further south. something watch out for future models runs that would even back winds even more

 

[Clancy]

No words even if close to verifying in the long range...and it's the EC

Good LORD.