Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[UncleJuJu98]

Kinda curious to if instability will be a non issue, it'll be March with a possible low pressure in the 980s with a extreme LLJ and extreme height falls right there in the quadrant of the deep south.

All speculation and hoopla at this point because things are bound to change

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Kinda curious to if instability will be q non issue, it'll be March with a possible low pressure in the 980s with a extreme LLJ and extreme height falls right there in the quadrant of the deep south.

All speculation and hoopla at this point because things are bound to change

Interesting for sure … see how this trends. I may be taking some vacation time for this if it holds. Winds are definitely backed ….

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Interesting for sure … see how this trends. I may be taking some vacation time for this if it holds

Lol I might would too, but I think everybody here needs to sit back and relax, still a lot of time to change. Seen things change dramatically in a short period of time with long range event. But I gotta admit the consensus on a similar idea with all the globals is a bit of a red flag.

I'd more so take off work to get a view of some storms it'd be awesome to see a wall cloud or something or even a shelf cloud.

 

[JPWX]

Has anyone else witnessed a 974mbar storm system over the Mid-South region in March? And if so, when was the last one to do so? I was just reading back through the March 1984 Carolina outbreak and that deepened to 976mbar.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

This is so savage!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This is so savage!

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This holds. This will be one large outbreak over large area be honest. This pressure holds this strong or even close. Wouldn’t be surprised see
Slightly nw tend with surface low. Strong ones tend to trend that way /

 

[UK_EF4]

This holds. This will be one large outbreak over large area be honest. This pressure holds this strong or even close. Wouldn’t be surprised see
Slightly nw tend with surface low. Strong ones tend to trend that way /

I would wait before we start calling an outbreak already. It's 9 days. We have seen events completely disappear at this range, so much could change. For now we should just view this period as having a heightened severe risk imo.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Has anyone else witnessed a 974mbar storm system over the Mid-South region in March? And if so, when was the last one to do so? I was just reading back through the March 1984 Carolina outbreak and that deepened to 976mbar.

Looked up Memphis all time record and the lowest pressure ever record at the Memphis office EVER was back in febuary 1902. And it was.... Drumroll 980. Looking at closing in on a all-time record for that region if models verify for the forecast lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I would wait before we start calling an outbreak already. It's 9 days. We have seen events completely disappear at this range, so much could change. For now we should just view this period as having a heightened severe risk imo.

Yes sir! We gotta take a chill pill, a lot of these things are speculation at this point.

Although FUN speculation lol; I enjoy it.

None of my talk is forecast at this point ; always trust your local weather office!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Going by verbtam only with that run. That’s a outbreak

I would wait before we start calling an outbreak already. It's 9 days. We have seen events completely disappear at this range, so much could change. For now we should just view this period as having a heightened severe risk imo.

 

[UK_EF4]

Going by verbtam only with that run. That’s a outbreak

Luckily it hasn't happened yet though!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The 12z euro 500mb height anomaly is pretty crazy lol. Very broad based with deep low moving through the base. That's pretty dangerous.

 

[KevinH]

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Although some of these runs especially the 12z Euro, are big 'yikes', I don't think we should be getting too worried just yet. I have posted these just for fun as I thought they are pretty crazy, but it's worth remembering we are still 220 hours out, and we know after the last few events things can easily downtrend. But for now I am just keeping an eye on models and trends etc, though also worth saying model agreement is something a bit unusual for 9 days out.

Right! The May 20 2019 outbreak that never happened (despite 45% sig tornado risk) is a good example of what could always happen despite what the models say.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The setup just by the long range is one of the more impressive synoptic scale ones I've ever seen; instability could be a issue but with such a deep low pressure and other factors I don't know, could end up being a squall line could be a poof of air but I'm amazed at the synoptic scale of the euro. Your reaching record breaking low pressure in a favorable place for severe weather in the south. The rising motion with the height falls is insane.

We are almost at the 7 day range for portions of the Louisiana and Arkansas area. So I'm curious as to if we will see SPC pull a trigger on a outline for the 7-8 period considering the remarkable consistency with all globals on a threat for the southeast

 

[KevinH]

This morning 12Z ECMWF is mouth dropping at 850mb, and with PDS soundings already at this range.

Good HELL.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The setup just by the long range is one of the more impressive synoptic scale ones I've ever seen; instability could be a issue but with such a deep low pressure and other factors I don't know, could end up being a squall line could be a poof of air but I'm amazed at the synoptic scale of the euro. Your reaching record breaking low pressure in a favorable place for severe weather in the south. The rising motion with the height falls is insane.

We are almost at the 7 day range for portions of the Louisiana and Arkansas area. So I'm curious as to if we will see SPC pull a trigger on a outline for the 7-8 period considering the remarkable consistency with all globals on a threat for the southeast

Just amazes me large area could
Be effective. Starting parts of Arkansas Louisiana se from there up lower Ohio valley

 

[KevinH]

The setup just by the long range is one of the more impressive synoptic scale ones I've ever seen; instability could be a issue but with such a deep low pressure and other factors I don't know, could end up being a squall line could be a poof of air but I'm amazed at the synoptic scale of the euro. Your reaching record breaking low pressure in a favorable place for severe weather in the south. The rising motion with the height falls is insane.

We are almost at the 7 day range for portions of the Louisiana and Arkansas area. So I'm curious as to if we will see SPC pull a trigger on a outline for the 7-8 period considering the remarkable consistency with all globals on a threat for the southeast

Will be interesting to see what happens. Model consistency this far out COULD be concerning and is definitely something to watch, but is never a 100% guarantee until it verifies the day of.

And that is IF it verifies the day of lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Will be interesting to see what happens. Model consistency this far out COULD be concerning and is definitely something to watch, but is never a 100% guarantee until it verifies the day of.

And that is IF it verifies the day of lol

We get it into day 5 area , that’s if. Then we may have start getting prepared. Local offices afd s going be interesting read. Next few days for sure

 

[KevinH]

We get it into day 5 area , that’s if. Then we may have start getting prepared. Local offices afd s going be interesting read. Next few days for sure

Right, I’m going to give it to D3… D5 if the models don’t back off and have several seats lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just moving forward, I'd like to note the EURO has been the most accurate in predicting trough ejections, so if there's any model to lean towards its the euro.