Winter Weather 2023-2024

[Blountwolf]

What is the Thursday/Friday system looking like for the Tennessee Valley?

Close call, but looks warm enough to not be a big issue. With the snow cover this one put down, the TN/AL line is going to be the dividing line again with chances for some freezing rain with another sleet/snow/zr setup for TN. We'll have to keep an eye on the temps though - if this cold settles in more than predicted then this moisture could provide come mischief.

 

[Blountwolf]

There are some single digit temps already in Alabama and some below zero temps in TN tonight. That's just more winter than we needed.

 

[David in SW Blount]

The temperatures across the heavy snow areas are insane this morning. This is from Weather Underground. I saw one location with -18°F on the upper Cumberland Plateau.

 

[Blountwolf]

The temperatures across the heavy snow areas are insane this morning. This is from Weather Underground. I saw one location with -18°F on the upper Cumberland Plateau.

And all this area is supposed to warm up enough for an all rain event ...checks notes... tomorrow.

 

[Mike S]

Got down to 1.8° IMBY in Meridianville this morning, but I've seen readings just a few miles to my north in Lincoln County, Tn. several degrees below zero.

 

[Blountwolf]

Messy messy at the onset tomorrow. I think we should keep a close eye on how close forecast temps today match reality, because this is going to be REALLY close, and then we go back in the icebox after. These are the kinds of systems that can surprise. Any warmer, there are no issues. Just a little colder... lots of issues. Not saying it will surprise us - but this one will make forecasters in the south bite their nails a bit. 540 line well north, so any surprises would be ice and not snow. And honestly - I would not want to be in Nashville. High of 36... so above freezing for just a couple of hours, rain, then back in the icebox for days. With as cold as the ground will be after this hard freeze? Persistent black ice upcoming.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Bring on the 60s next week! I was originally hoping for a surprise Thursday but I’m ready to move on. Maybe North Alabama will get another opportunity to get a real snow storm instead of the inch or so of ice a lot of places received. Lucky that it was sleet and not freezing rain.

 

[Blountwolf]

Bring on the 60s next week! I was originally hoping for a surprise Thursday but I’m ready to move on. Maybe North Alabama will get another opportunity to get a real snow storm instead of the inch or so of ice a lot of places received. Lucky that it was sleet and not freezing rain.

I don't think anyone wants the kind of surprise Thursday could bring - the 540 line will be well north, so any surprise would be sleet, freezing rain, or quick black ice issues after the rain passes. I just have a bad feeling with how deep in the freezer this cold is that it might be more persistent than expected.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Richardjacks]

looking at all the models, if the rain comes in earler, it will could be bad for a few hours before the waa kicks in and overcomes evap. cooling. Gonna have to watch models tonight for north/central Alabama

 

[South AL Wx]

HUN has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for many of their counties. From James Spann:

"From NWS Huntsville “We've issued a winter weather advisory for all but Cullman, Marshall, and DeKalb in effect Noon Today-6AM Friday. While we are confident that many locations will climb above freezing, some parts of these counties will not.

Light freezing rain will be an issue, especially in southern middle TN and locations along the AL/TN border in Lauderdale, Limestone, Madison, and Jackson counties which have a greater existing ice/snow pack.”

 

[Blountwolf]

I just noticed that Memphis wet bulbed/evap cooled to 28 temp and dewpoint. Ick. Poor folks. More ice mess.

 

[Richardjacks]

The wet bulb in my backyard is 29° in Crestwood.

 

[Blountwolf]

The wet bulb in my backyard is 29° in Crestwood.

Yep, but warm nose incoming. WAA is going to be plenty for central AL if that continues rolling east that way.

 

[Richardjacks]

Yep, but warm nose incoming. WAA is going to be plenty for central AL if that continues rolling east that way.
View attachment 23512

Yes...thats what is going to save us. I am ready for the cold to be scoured out!

 

[Blountwolf]

Tupelo evap'd back down to freezing from 34. Definitely will be a very close call if not a mess for the northern AL counties.

 

[Blountwolf]

Nerding out a little bit on the mesoscale banding - check how the northern and southern banding features are colliding.

 

[Richardjacks]

Nerding out a little bit on the mesoscale banding - check how the northern and southern banding features are colliding.
View attachment 23514
View attachment 23515

 

[Richardjacks]

Close call, but looks warm enough to not be a big issue. With the snow cover this one put down, the TN/AL line is going to be the dividing line again with chances for some freezing rain with another sleet/snow/zr setup for TN. We'll have to keep an eye on the temps though - if this cold settles in more than predicted then this moisture could provide come mischief.

View attachment 23496

where did you get that map? Is it meso analysis from SPC?

 

[Blountwolf]

where did you get that map? Is it meso analysis from SPC?

It's just the old weatherscope app from OK mesonet. Plotted temps, wet bulb, and dewpoints from the NWS obs, and nexrad radar overlays. Old school.