Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

[UncleJuJu98]

Do you see I-20 having potential travel issues ?

Not sure yet, I thought a winter weather advisory would be good As a precaution

 

[cyelle21]

From BMX early morning discussion: "
Guidance remains conflicted as to whether this
low will remain closed off, or devolve into an open wave surface
trough as it moves east."

How would each solution affect snow totals?

 

[Richardjacks]

If we see an overperform on I 20, it's going to start to look like the last image....breaking out very early 6am, in time to help saturated low levels before vort max arrives.

 

[Richardjacks]

From BMX early morning discussion: "
Guidance remains conflicted as to whether this
low will remain closed off, or devolve into an open wave surface
trough as it moves east."

How would each solution affect snow totals?

I saws that, snowmegodden was an open wave, i think it's less likely to dig as far south if its closed, or just go more east than south

 

[Blountwolf]

From BMX early morning discussion: "
Guidance remains conflicted as to whether this
low will remain closed off, or devolve into an open wave surface
trough as it moves east."

How would each solution affect snow totals?

If the system remains closed off, expect heavier, more localized snow totals with the potential for significant accumulations in the deformation zone. If it becomes an open wave, expect lighter and more widespread snow with less overall impact.

 

[Richardjacks]

If the system remains closed off, expect heavier, more localized snow totals with the potential for significant accumulations in the deformation zone. If it becomes an open wave, expect lighter and more widespread snow with less overall impact.

very true, a closed low is likely colder aloft, producing higher snowfall rates

 

[Flurry]

And so it begins…Precip has broken out in S. TX

 

[UncleJuJu98]

If we see an overperform on I 20, it's going to start to look like the last image....breaking out very early 6am, in time to help saturated low levels before vort max arrives.

Latest hrrr shows a finger extended out over into i20

 

[Richardjacks]

Latest hrrr shows a finger extended out over into i20

12z gfs does the same

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Newest hrrr does the same thing. By 4am very light precip over extending i20.

 

[Ars4ua]

very true, a closed low is likely colder aloft, producing higher snowfall rates

When will we know about Low?

 

[Blountwolf]

RAP's got vertical motion at 500mb that aligns with that as well. Potential for mesoscale banding. So definitely some potential for mischief.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

RAP's got vertical motion at 500mb that aligns with that as well. Potential for mesoscale banding. So definitely some potential for mischief.
View attachment 33203

What's mesoscale banding?

 

[stallions3peat]

What's mesoscale banding?

It's a band in the mesoscale. Duh

 

[Blizzard1]

What's mesoscale banding?

It would be certain localized areas of heavier precip that could get you a good amount in a short period of time and could also go over the same area to add to it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It's a band in the mesoscale. Duh

Hey now get back to work Shane! Or you ain't getting any snow lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[cyelle21]

Sorry for all the questions, but what is the difference between the NBM versus SREF? Which one is better this close to the event?

 

[warneagle]

we got our ~inch of snow yesterday and now the deep freeze is here for the rest of the week, joy

 

[Blountwolf]

Sorry for all the questions, but what is the difference between the NBM versus SREF? Which one is better this close to the event?

SREF is better for pinpointing smaller-scale features, the NBM general trends.