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Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

wx_guy said:
Very well said. Josh Johnson at WFSA mentioned this yesterday, and I think it's worth throwing into the mix here: This low is forming in the Gulf as we speak, and an interesting/unfortunate aspect of that is we lack data in the Gulf! Except for random buoys, there is no real observational data consistently there like there is on land masses. So the models are kinda sorta playing their best guessing game until they can begin assimilating land-based data into the mix. And with it so rare that a winter storm forms this far south (probably has nil or almost nil records in the historical record in the modern computing era), the models are really probably REALLY putting on their best poker face for a little bit. I think they'll turn out 90% correct and I think most mets trust the models generally. But that 10% leaves a lot of room for intrigue.
Click to expand...
Exactly - where the baroclinic zone sets up in the Gulf is critical for the low track, and there's simply not enough data out of the gulf for the models to do a good job understanding where that is. With the Gulf having been so warm this year, if it is "guessing" based on past events, it may very well get that wrong. A low moving to the SE instead of ENE along the zone as usual means something else is going on - and in this case, that something is the push of the ULL following the shortwave - decoupling the surface low from the baroclinic zone and sending it southeast. Just having a tough time wrapping my head around that - I would expect it to deepen and speed up east along the zone instead. Path of least resistance and all that. I'm probably missing something.
 
BMX discussion
During the last 12-18 hours, models have trended slightly less
positively-tilted and more phased with the approaching 500 mb
shortwave trough. Accordingly, QPF for Tuesday has increased and
trended a bit northward in the models that were the farthest
south. There is a growing consensus for an axis of locally higher
snow totals (2 to 3 inches) in our southeastern counties, and our
updated forecasts reflects this trend. The orientation of the
precipitation is expected to be more southwest to northeast than
previously indicated. Therefore, the Winter Storm Warning has
was changed to a Winter Weather Advisory for Marengo and Dallas
Counties, and Lee County was included in the Winter Storm Warning.
The remainder of the Winter Storm Watch was converted to a Winter
Weather Advisory which now includes Clay County.

With temperatures below freezing, 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow
could cause difficult travel conditions. It is possible that
last-minute model and radar trends, could prompt a northward
expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory late tonight or Tuesday
morning.
 
Richardjacks said:
BMX discussion
During the last 12-18 hours, models have trended slightly less
positively-tilted and more phased with the approaching 500 mb
shortwave trough. Accordingly, QPF for Tuesday has increased and
trended a bit northward in the models that were the farthest
south. There is a growing consensus for an axis of locally higher
snow totals (2 to 3 inches) in our southeastern counties, and our
updated forecasts reflects this trend. The orientation of the
precipitation is expected to be more southwest to northeast than
previously indicated. Therefore, the Winter Storm Warning has
was changed to a Winter Weather Advisory for Marengo and Dallas
Counties, and Lee County was included in the Winter Storm Warning.
The remainder of the Winter Storm Watch was converted to a Winter
Weather Advisory which now includes Clay County.

With temperatures below freezing, 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow
could cause difficult travel conditions. It is possible that
last-minute model and radar trends, could prompt a northward
expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory late tonight or Tuesday
morning.
Click to expand...
That sucks...i was hoping we would get a little more in Dallas County when i first read that QPF trended north..
 
Dry as a bone in TX - dewpoints are between 0 and 10. It's going to take a lot to moisten that up.
 
weather.cod.edu

COD-NEXLAB : Dual-Pol Radar for CRP

Dual-Pol NEXRAD Data for provided by College of DuPage Meteorology (NEXLAB)
weather.cod.edu weather.cod.edu
More moisture starting to kick up now, as expected. Note the 62 degree temp with the wind out of the east just off the coast. Dewpoints rising along the coast, but anything further inland will have to wait for the dry air at the surface to saturate more.
1737414334113.png
 
Here's school closing/delay list for people in Central Alabama.

abc3340.com

Closings

ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, Alabama offers news, sports, and weather reporting for the surrounding communities including Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Cullman, Gadsden, Talladega, Sylacauga, Carbon Hill, Jasper, Hoover, Bessemer, Vestavia Hills, Alabaster, Trussville and Homewood.
abc3340.com abc3340.com
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Here's school closing/delay list for people in Central Alabama.

abc3340.com

Closings

ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, Alabama offers news, sports, and weather reporting for the surrounding communities including Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Cullman, Gadsden, Talladega, Sylacauga, Carbon Hill, Jasper, Hoover, Bessemer, Vestavia Hills, Alabaster, Trussville and Homewood.
abc3340.com abc3340.com
Click to expand...
Yeah our school zone in Tuscaloosa usually waits until the last possible moment to close things down so it was a bit startling that they chose to do so so early this time. Mentally scarred from 2014 is what it said in the message (not in those words obviously, even though that would have been great)
 
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