• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

Blountwolf said:
SREF is better for pinpointing smaller-scale features, the NBM general trends.
Click to expand...
Although at this point, it's better to look at the Convection Allowing Models, in my view. The ensemble models average the banding that they predict develops, so this could result in a much wider band of snowy precipitation than what actually develops (ie, one model in the ensemble has the band further north, another further south, and both show up as averaged out on the SREF or NBM).
 
First Winter Storm Warning for NWS Mobile CWA in January since January 29th, 2019.
 
The HRRR is still running, but it's looking VERY likely this will be a bottom 1/2 or bottom 1/3 of AL event, and a FL Panhandle/Big Bend and South GA/MS/LA/TX event exclusively. Could be wrong, but that's what it's looking like.

Interestingly, the soundings on the HRR are showing Omega values of -10 to -30 and dendritic growth zone of 3k-4k feet and temperatures all the way to the surface below freezing, so it looks like heavy snow/banding could occur in areas along the Gulf Coast. So I'd expect some areas will consistently over perform the forecast and get 6-10 inches of snow, even in FL/AL/GA. EDIT: I picked a couple points and saw DGZ sizes around 3500, but some areas are in the 2500 range, but still I think heavy snow is definitely possible.
 
The 18z HRRR actually has the 5-8 inch snow band leaving Louisiana and sliding through the Gulf until it gets to the Big Bend. So far south lol
 
Geno said:
What does that mean to people who don't speak weather?
Click to expand...
Just one of the variables involved, so we pay attention to it before a system. We look for variables that are different from what the models said they would be to try to adjust forecasts. In this case, it means what wx_guy said - potentially further north low pressure if the high pressure to the north is not as strong as forecast. I've had a problem believing that it will be so far south - it's pretty rare - but the models completely believe it.
 
If this moves north into my area now, I’m going to be mad. I’ve been starving on a liquid diet all day, have to take a prep mixture tonight, and I have a colonoscopy scheduled for tomorrow morning. I don’t want to have to do this again. LOL I was hoping the chance for snow would have cancelled it earlier, but that fizzled out over the weekend.
 
Blountwolf said:
Just one of the variables involved, so we pay attention to it before a system. We look for variables that are different from what the models said they would be to try to adjust forecasts. In this case, it means what wx_guy said - potentially further north low pressure if the high pressure to the north is not as strong as forecast. I've had a problem believing that it will be so far south - it's pretty rare - but the models completely believe it.
Click to expand...
Very well said. Josh Johnson at WFSA mentioned this yesterday, and I think it's worth throwing into the mix here: This low is forming in the Gulf as we speak, and an interesting/unfortunate aspect of that is we lack data in the Gulf! Except for random buoys, there is no real observational data consistently there like there is on land masses. So the models are kinda sorta playing their best guessing game until they can begin assimilating land-based data into the mix. And with it so rare that a winter storm forms this far south (probably has nil or almost nil records in the historical record in the modern computing era), the models are really probably REALLY putting on their best poker face for a little bit. I think they'll turn out 90% correct and I think most mets trust the models generally. But that 10% leaves a lot of room for intrigue.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top