Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

A little bit late to the thread, but just wanted to ask, how many inches of snow/winter precipitation is forecasted to fall around the NW Houston metro area?
 
AJS said:
A little bit late to the thread, but just wanted to ask, how many inches of snow/winter precipitation is forecasted to fall around the NW Houston metro area?
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They just issued a Winter Storm Watch for in and around Houston with 3"+ estimates of mixed precip, but looks mostly south part of Houston. Lake Charles is projecting a broad swath of 3-8" across south Louisiana with central LA higher. NW Houston seems to be in a good spot to receive more than south Houston and closer to the central Louisiana outcomes. -- It seems to have been in a good spot for all guidance the last several runs.
 
Here's the winter storm watches with the included expansions. Most All of southern half of Mississippi is included now.

 
UncleJuJu98 said:
What do you think is going to happen? More northward push? less Gulf Coast snow totals? Less moisture?
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My thought is that the models may be having tough time understanding the cyclogenesis of the low. The shortwave is going to be meeting the temp gradient created by the Gulf warm waters and setting things off. The ensembles have the low all over the place - but most members over the central and southern gulf, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me because of the temp of the water. The baroclinic zone being that far south would mean the warmth in the central gulf (70-80s) and the warmth in the southern gulf (it's almost 90 today on the Yucutan peninsula) just gets totally blasted south. Possible, but that's what I am most skeptical about. I think the baroclinic zone (greatest temp gradient) might very well set up further north because of the heat of the gulf. Betting against that warmth hasn't gone well this year. I'm betting the low forms and tracks further north than where the globals think, and because of the tighter gradient, I'm betting on a stronger low than expected. So more warm nose, more northerly precip shield, greater impacts.
 
Blountwolf said:
My thought is that the models may be having tough time understanding the cyclogenesis of the low. The shortwave is going to be meeting the temp gradient created by the Gulf warm waters and setting things off. The ensembles have the low all over the place - but most members over the central and southern gulf, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me because of the temp of the water. The baroclinic zone being that far south would mean the warmth in the central gulf (70-80s) and the warmth in the southern gulf (it's almost 90 today on the Yucutan peninsula) just gets totally blasted south. Possible, but that's what I am most skeptical about. I think the baroclinic zone (greatest temp gradient) might very well set up further north because of the heat of the gulf. Betting against that warmth hasn't gone well this year. I'm betting the low forms and tracks further north than where the globals think, and because of the tighter gradient, I'm betting on a stronger low than expected. So more warm nose, more northerly precip shield, greater impacts.
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That's what I'm thinking too and why I think a greater impact for areas further inland from the coast
 
Blountwolf said:
My thought is that the models may be having tough time understanding the cyclogenesis of the low. The shortwave is going to be meeting the temp gradient created by the Gulf warm waters and setting things off. The ensembles have the low all over the place - but most members over the central and southern gulf, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me because of the temp of the water. The baroclinic zone being that far south would mean the warmth in the central gulf (70-80s) and the warmth in the southern gulf (it's almost 90 today on the Yucutan peninsula) just gets totally blasted south. Possible, but that's what I am most skeptical about. I think the baroclinic zone (greatest temp gradient) might very well set up further north because of the heat of the gulf. Betting against that warmth hasn't gone well this year. I'm betting the low forms and tracks further north than where the globals think, and because of the tighter gradient, I'm betting on a stronger low than expected. So more warm nose, more northerly precip shield, greater impacts.
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I've noticed the high temps have been bumping up for Cullman or at least on the app I use. Still cold, but up to 32⁰ Tuesday from 28⁰ a few days ago. Not sure what model it favors. I of course read the NWS, models, Mets, etc. Been here since 2001 I believe. Still see some familiar names. JO/JS on swow watch that year late one night with the tacos lol. My apologies ahead of time if this was an inappropriate post. I don't know the new rules and back then there were only 25 of us here. I'm one of the Daniels out of 3 back then. Only a couple miles up 31 in Garden City.
 

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DanielD said:
I've noticed the high temps have been bumping up for Cullman or at least on the app I use. Still cold, but up to 32⁰ Tuesday from 28⁰ a few days ago. Not sure what model it favors. I of course read the NWS, models, Mets, etc. Been here since 2001 I believe. Still see some familiar names. JO/JS on swow watch that year late one night with the tacos lol. My apologies ahead of time if this was an inappropriate post. I don't know the new rules and back then there were only 25 of us here. I'm one of the Daniels out of 3 back then. Only a couple miles up 31 in Garden City.
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I've been around, mostly as a reader/lurker, since the 1990's and John Oldshue days. I'm glad this forum has been active for the winter weather events. The other board is so busy, it's hard to keep up with!
 
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