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Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

cyelle21 said:
I am still learning how to make GIFs of the model runs, so I haven't quite figured out how to do a comparison from one model run to the next.
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Looks like the bad model trends continue as the 18z GFS is also coming in colder and farther south with the low. At least through the first part of the event.
 
aujerm said:
Looks like the bad model trends continue as the 18z GFS is also coming in colder and farther south with the low. At least through the first part of the event.
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What gets me is this could totally flip on its head and go the other way real quick. I remember the last event we got down into 24 hours from the event and it changed drastically with the low pressure dissolving into like a double barrel low lol. And then also the snow line was a lot further south. I trust Blount county wolf and the more experienced guys in there take of this event instead of models at the moment. Things are being a little weird with models currently lol
 
cyelle21 said:
I am still learning how to make GIFs of the model runs, so I haven't quite figured out how to do a comparison from one model run to the next.
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Thank you! In AL I'm feeling BMX might initially issue the WS Watch for the counties not included in the last warning. Then further northern counties could be added later. The NAM shifting south hurt.
 
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The Colonel said:
All hail Canada at this point….its been so consistent!
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Yeah. The Canadian model might be the best option to go with this round until we get consistency (if any)
 
If you just read that overview posted above concerning the1/28/2014 "snowmageddon", there are ALOT of similarities. From today's warm temps to the arctic front arriving tomorrow, and the event on Tuesday.

I can think of an event that happened according to plan. The wintry weather was suppressed entirely in south Alabama. I wish I could think of the year...I want to say around 2005. I think those 500mb charts would be helpful to compare. It was a very suppressed system. I want to say the surface low was nearly down into the Bay of Campeche.
 
ok
JPWX said:
Yeah. The Canadian model might be the best option to go with this round until we get consistency (if any)
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do we know how much stock the National Weather service is putting into the Canadian model? I know this thing has been consistent the last several days were up and down.
 
18GFS the low went to Cuba, no joke. If the 1039mb high it believes in verifies, it is going to be brutally cold in the SE, and most of the wintery precip will be in LA with less and less further east.

Ensembles have nothing in Bham on the vast majority of members and more with it suppressed all the way off the coast.
1737241023970.png

Frankly I'm STILL skeptical of this happening, but it's certainly not backing off the idea, it's doubling down. GFS believes the artic air wins big in this battle.
 
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I hate my son isn’t still at Keesler. I’d go visit him next week. He’s getting his fill of snow in Wyoming (and loving it), but snow on the beach has to be prettier than snow on the plains (those Rocky Mtn views are gorgeous when he goes snowboarding though). :)

IMG_8159.pngIMG_8208.jpeg
 
Looking for guidance in a higher resolution model on the strength of the coming high pressure and HRRR throws out 1041 for Memphis... 1737242883111.png

Brr.
 
I'm in St Petersburg now, but I have friends and family in SE AL and Tallahassee, so watching this closely!

Starting tomorrow, the experimental Winter Storm Severity Index will come into range (has to be Day 3 or sooner). It is an AMAZINg product for forecasting the societal impact of severe winter storms.It can be found here (change TAE to the NWS office of your choosing).

 
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