Tropical Depression Tropical Depression Karen

[KoD]

Euro & GFS show some interesting solutions in the long range. 12z GFS & 00z ECMWF have north motion until this weekend, then a westward shift towards the CONUS. GFS shows gradual weakening with time and the Euro has it strengthening into a hurricane & nearing or entering the GOM around the beginning of October.

 

[Kory]

Euro & GFS show some interesting solutions in the long range. 12z GFS & 00z ECMWF have north motion until this weekend, then a westward shift towards the CONUS. GFS shows gradual weakening with time and the Euro has it strengthening into a hurricane & nearing or entering the GOM around the beginning of October.

Yeah, we so many moving components with the pattern that make Karen a highly uncertain forecast.

The recurving of both Jerry and the other wave just exiting Africa will be key in amplification of a trough over the Central Atlantic. That will allow the ridge over the eastern CONUS to amplify and strengthen with a deep trough diving into the West Coast helping to erode the western edge and shift it east to extend into the Western Atlantic. A bit of a different set up than Dorian and Humberto. I think this one might have a better chance at getting further west and quite strong.

The GFS has it interacting destructively with a ULL while the Euro has great upper level support.

 

[WesL]

Latest update from this morning....

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Models still indicate that Karen will head west. GFS is the weakest while the others have a formidable hurricane.

 

[JayF]

Karen is going to perform a dance in the Atlantic called the Tropical Storm Loop. Thoughts on her increasing in Intensity as it possibly heads towards Florida?

 

[Kory]

I'm not sure it makes it to Florida...

There is a long ways to go with this one.