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Svr Wx Threat Sun 2/26/2023 (KS, OK, TX, MO) & Mon 2/27/2023 (IL/IN/OH)

21z HRRR significantly more linear
refcmp_uh001h.us_c.png
 
MattPetrulli said:
21z HRRR significantly more linear
refcmp_uh001h.us_c.png
Click to expand...
This is in line with something that I called and/or drew attention to earlier, so perhaps there is something to the following:

Casuarina Head said:
@MattPetrulli How high are the modelled LCLs over the southern, relatively discrete part of the line? HRRR sometimes, if not frequently, overestimates discrete mode in these highly-sheared, low-instability setups. If I recall correctly, weren’t there a number of times when this occurred in the fairly recent past? At this point I’m leaning toward a solid QLCS with very damaging winds rather than a semi-discrete or discrete mode. I think convection will grow upscale immediately rather than go through a brief semi-discrete stage.
Click to expand...
^ Of course, I am still interested in hearing whether my reasoning and/or understanding is correct. Does the HRRR have this bias?
 
Casuarina Head said:
This is in line with something that I called and/or drew attention to earlier, so perhaps there is something to the following:


^ Of course, I am still interested in hearing whether my reasoning and/or understanding is correct. Does the HRRR have this bias?
Click to expand...
Kinda echoes the trouble with Alabama's last severe event.
 
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