Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[Clancy]

I'm currently a 1st year meteorology student. Is there any reason as to why CSU has drastically different risk areas from the SPC?

It's merely because the analog-based algorithms used to determine those threat contours are dependent upon model data (updated twice per day), causing them to differ, sometimes drastically, from the overall geometry of SPC outlook areas.

 

[JPWX]

Meanwhile the 12z RRFS has supercells moving through yours truly's backyard on Tuesday. To be honest, it does show my concern.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Meanwhile the 12z RRFS has supercells moving through yours truly's backyard on Tuesday. To be honest, it does show my concern.

Supercell printer at it again lol

 

[andyhb]

Something rather ominous about having a potential significant severe event in the Ohio Valley on the day before the 50th anniversary of the 1974 Super Outbreak.

 

[Former Member 1430]

Something rather ominous about having a potential significant severe event in the Ohio Valley on the day before the 50th anniversary of the 1974 Super Outbreak.

I had the exact same thought. I’ll be curious to see how models pan out over the next 24 hours

 

[cincywx]

while i suspect most of the threat on tuesday will occur east of cincinnati, it's certainly got my ears perked up

it would be nice if this doesn't age poorly. the environment in the cincinnati area is gradually growing more concerning and a shift of only a few hours could bring us firmly into play.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Meanwhile the 12z RRFS has supercells moving through yours truly's backyard on Tuesday. To be honest, it does show my concern.

Do you have an image of the ref composite that shows the Ohio Valley?

 

[JPWX]

18z HRRR at 48 hours
18z RRFS at 51 hours

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

I know it's the supercell printer, but that looks mean

 

[JPWX]

I know it's the supercell printer, but that looks mean

Yeah and it might not be far off on that idea given that you'll have a warm front positioned in that general area.

 

[JPWX]

O would you look at that.... Both the 18z GFS and NAM CWASP have a 75 contour right over Northeast MS and my house

O boy....

 

[Clancy]

21Z SREF with a large 60% SigTor Ingredients contour at 21Z Tuesday.

 

[Clancy]

Sounding from near Columbus, MS, ahead of a QLCS on Tuesday. Could certainly support a tornado threat.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

21Z SREF with a large 60% SigTor Ingredients contour at 21Z Tuesday.
View attachment 24561

You know something's up when the models bullseye east Kentucky

 

[JPWX]

Sounding from near Columbus, MS, ahead of a QLCS on Tuesday. Could certainly support a tornado threat.
View attachment 24563

That and based on other models I've seen today warrant either expansion of the Level 2 risk and/or upgrade to Level 3 (particularly Northeast MS into North AL)

 

[Timhsv]

Tuesday/ NAM/ 21Z

 

[Brice W]

Meanwhile the 12z RRFS has supercells moving through yours truly's backyard on Tuesday. To be honest, it does show my concern.

The way the structure of the supercells reminds me so much of what the RRFS looked probably of the 4/28/2014 high risk outbreak. Nasty.

 

[Clancy]

06Z runs of CAMs show a concerning increase in the favorability of wind fields for tornadoes across AL and GA, with more curved hodos out ahead of convection. If that trend holds, could mean a more substantial tornado threat for the South.
Edit: Likewise, 03Z SREF guidance trended more favorable for tornadoes across Alabama and Georgia.

 

[David in SW Blount]

Well that escalated quickly!

 

[MichelleH]

Anyone else not quite in agreement with the Day 2?