Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[MichelleH]

 

[Clancy]

Uptrend on CIPS and CSU probs for D4.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tuesday looks the most interesting to me with it being the bigger severe weather and tornado threat day. I have my eyes on the eastern half of the Ohio Valley.

 

[JPWX]

I wouldn't sleep on a threat for MS (particularly North-Central MS) into Northwest Alabama on Tuesday. The latest Euro and Canadian depict pretty stout CAPE values going into Tuesday. The only global model that doesn't is the GFS.

 

[MichelleH]

I wouldn't sleep on a threat for MS (particularly North-Central MS) into Northwest Alabama on Tuesday. The latest Euro and Canadian depict pretty stout CAPE values going into Tuesday. The only global model that doesn't is the GFS.

Oh yay. I'm in that area.

 

[Tennie]

I still have nightmares from Dial’s shifts.

You've piqued my interest here. Out of curiosity, what was it about Dial's shifts that did that to you?

 

[Clancy]

12Z NAM showing impressive instability for much of the South thru Tuesday evening (though it is the NAM, so take that for what it's worth). Wind fields are not particularly impressive, most favorable for damaging winds, but would probably still create some threat for tornadoes. Sounding from near Alexander City.

 

[JPWX]

12z GFS/Canadian/Euro dewpoints and CAPE for Tuesday during the 20z/21z timeframe (3pm to 4pm)

 

[Clancy]

18Z NAM. Sounding from Central AL may be slightly contaminated, but overall the wind fields look better than in previous runs. Something to watch very closely as we approach the day of.

 

[jiharris0220]

I know it’s the nam and probably contaminated but…

 

[JPWX]

18z GFS dewpoints and CAPE valid at 4pm Tuesday. Seems that the GFS has gotten the memo about greater instability from the Euro and Canadian. Also those dewpoints of 70 are just asking for trouble.

 

[Clancy]

Trey has an analysis video of this upcoming threat now.

 

[KevinH]

18z GFS dewpoints and CAPE valid at 4pm Tuesday. Seems that the GFS has gotten the memo about greater instability from the Euro and Canadian. Also those dewpoints of 70 are just asking for trouble.

Not good.

 

[warneagle]

I know it’s the nam and probably contaminated but…

Yeah I think you've got some convective feedback there.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nam is impressive for Ohio on Tuesday.

*Would like to see more backing in the low level for higher tornado probs, but still.

 

[andyhb]

18z NAM would be trouble in the OV on Tuesday although I have doubts about prior convection affecting lapse rates/destabilization.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Long range hrrr doing long range hrrr things when on the cusp of a event lol.

Think Tuesday will be your bigger tornado potential though!

 

[Clancy]

00Z NAM slowing down the system some, and has a late-afternoon/nocturnal QLCS tornado threat for parts of the South. Sounding from N GA/AL border.

 

[JPWX]

00z HRRR valid at 00z Tuesday (7pm).

 

[Scott81]

00Z NAM slowing down the system some, and has a late-afternoon/nocturnal QLCS tornado threat for parts of the South. Sounding from N GA/AL border.
View attachment 24536

Thanks for the update. I live in north alabama