I have family in North Mississippi. Please stop it.00z HRRR valid at 00z Tuesday (7pm).
Just kidding.
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I have family in North Mississippi. Please stop it.00z HRRR valid at 00z Tuesday (7pm).
Would definitely agree - that slowing trend of the main trough has really allowed Tuesday to look quite concerning in some aspects as the best wind fields coincide with peak heating over the Midwest. In fact, without trying to sound too dramatic, the general trough shape, low placement and available moisture isn't a million miles of the March 2nd 2012 outbreak (though I would be surprised at this point if we saw something of that magnitude).Latest GFS and the EURO are pretty robust with the low level jet, with the NAM being kind of an outlier. Tuesday is starting to look rough from the Ohio Valley down to the Tennessee Valley especially if this trends a tad bit stronger.
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That ended up being a High Risk event for North MS and North Alabama as well.In terms of trough shape and placement, I'm really starting to think that (concerningly) 4/16/1998 is quite a good analog to Tuesday's threat:
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I still doubt we will see something of that magnitude (in addition to the earlier comparison to 2012), but with that positive tilt trough enhanced flow over the Midwest - does go to show Tuesday has got concerning potential. A lot depends on how that outflow boundary from earlier storms develops (as the HRRR and other cams show) which could cut off the northern half of the warm sector. Additionally, some models were showing much weaker low level shear for Tuesday, which would be another big limiting factor (though its worth noting that going off ERA reanalysis, the 1998 event didnt seem to have overly impressive low level shear either). Definitely going to watch for model trends/changes with regards to those two factors over the next day and a bit.
The trusty juxtaposition in force for Tuesday - that the wind fields may be weaker where instability is stronger, as opposed to the February setups where the issue is vice versa. That being said, the shear still looks more-than-adequate for tornadoes, especially towards the OH Valley, and we'll have to watch carefully for any shortwaves that may enhance shear.In terms of trough shape and placement, I'm really starting to think that (concerningly) 4/16/1998 is quite a good analog to Tuesday's threat:
View attachment 24548View attachment 24549
I still doubt we will see something of that magnitude (in addition to the earlier comparison to 2012), but with that positive tilt trough enhanced flow over the Midwest - does go to show Tuesday has got concerning potential. A lot depends on how that outflow boundary from earlier storms develops (as the HRRR and other cams show) which could cut off the northern half of the warm sector. Additionally, some models were showing much weaker low level shear for Tuesday, which would be another big limiting factor (though its worth noting that going off ERA reanalysis, the 1998 event didnt seem to have overly impressive low level shear either). Definitely going to watch for model trends/changes with regards to those two factors over the next day and a bit.
Haha
Haha