It's merely because the analog-based algorithms used to determine those threat contours are dependent upon model data (updated twice per day), causing them to differ, sometimes drastically, from the overall geometry of SPC outlook areas.
Supercell printer at it again lol
I had the exact same thought. I’ll be curious to see how models pan out over the next 24 hours
it would be nice if this doesn't age poorly. the environment in the cincinnati area is gradually growing more concerning and a shift of only a few hours could bring us firmly into play.
Do you have an image of the ref composite that shows the Ohio Valley?
Yeah and it might not be far off on that idea given that you'll have a warm front positioned in that general area.
You know something's up when the models bullseye east Kentucky
That and based on other models I've seen today warrant either expansion of the Level 2 risk and/or upgrade to Level 3 (particularly Northeast MS into North AL)
The way the structure of the supercells reminds me so much of what the RRFS looked probably of the 4/28/2014 high risk outbreak. Nasty.
