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Spring 2017 Severe Weather.

Will the season be...

  • Above average

    Votes: 26 61.9%

  • Average

    Votes: 13 31.0%

  • Below average

    Votes: 3 7.1%
  • Total voters
    42
Kory said:
Yep. GFS/UKMET want to make Alabama's A-Day in Tuscaloosa interesting. Still a lot of question on how the shortwave ejects, but it looks low amplitude which favors better kinematics....
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It is forgotten because of 4/27, but the 4/15/11 storms did damage to Tuscaloosa as well, right before A-Day.
 
Meanwhile, let's take a look at some sounding porn. Last night's 00z GFS valid for somewhere in SC OK on Friday evening.

I am strongly considering a chase trip to somewhere near the Quad Cities on Wednesday evening, as well.gfs_2017041700_120_35.0--98_sm.png

It is worth noting that the forecast soundings for both days show excellent low-level directional shear, something which was sorely lacking over much of the target area on April 5. Biggest question mark at this point looks to be capping, with at least some CIN remaining on most NAM or GFS soundings valid for 00z the evening in question.
 
Last edited:
By the early indications, looks like the CAD regions of n GA and the Carolinas will escape this one too. Easterly flow at the surface will choke off any instability in those areas. This looks to be a Mississippi and Alabama threat mostly as of now.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Meanwhile, let's take a look at some sounding porn. Last night's 00z GFS valid for somewhere in SC OK on Friday evening.

I am strongly considering a chase trip to somewhere near the Quad Cities on Wednesday evening, as well.View attachment 198

It is worth noting that the forecast soundings for both days show excellent low-level directional shear, something which was sorely lacking over much of the target area on April 5. Biggest question mark at this point looks to be capping, with at least some CIN remaining on most NAM or GFS soundings valid for 00z the evening in question.
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LOL I got an automated alert for this post for "sounding porn"
 
12z runs continue to advertise a threat into MS/TN and easing into AL later on Saturday. Question will be quality of moisture, but the due westerly 500mb flow indicates a supercellular mode. Still a lot of questions....

The bigger threats may come the following weekend as there is a strong signal from the 27th until the 30th or so. Just keep an eye as the last week in April is often climo favored.
 
Kory said:
12z runs continue to advertise a threat into MS/TN and easing into AL later on Saturday. Question will be quality of moisture, but the due westerly 500mb flow indicates a supercellular mode. Still a lot of questions....

The bigger threats may come the following weekend as there is a strong signal from the 27th until the 30th or so. Just keep an eye as the last week in April is often climo favored.
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I didn't want to hear that since my son has to go to Memphis the last weekend of the month.
 
Kory said:
12z runs continue to advertise a threat into MS/TN and easing into AL later on Saturday. Question will be quality of moisture, but the due westerly 500mb flow indicates a supercellular mode. Still a lot of questions....

The bigger threats may come the following weekend as there is a strong signal from the 27th until the 30th or so. Just keep an eye as the last week in April is often climo favored.
Click to expand...


The look at 500mb reminds me of an event in 2007 I believe. It may have been the Americus GA tornado, but I'm not sure.
 
Yeah I definitely wouldn't sleep on the area along the warm front between the Quad Cities and Chicago on Wednesday. We've seen some pretty nasty storms ride warm fronts in that part of the country recently.
 
Ugh, the 18z 3KM NAM has a small area of 0-1 KM EHIs >3 along that warm front, but doesn't break out any discrete convection along it. And, I once again have work at 3AM Thursday and can't take off (not enough staff otherwise), so a 2-3 hour trip to/from the target area basically means no sleep for me. The pull of work and sleep was part of the reason I was in Ogle County, IL at 4 PM on 4/9/15, decided it was another failed early season conditional setup, and drove back home to Madison.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Meanwhile, let's take a look at some sounding porn. Last night's 00z GFS valid for somewhere in SC OK on Friday evening.

I am strongly considering a chase trip to somewhere near the Quad Cities on Wednesday evening, as well.View attachment 198

It is worth noting that the forecast soundings for both days show excellent low-level directional shear, something which was sorely lacking over much of the target area on April 5. Biggest question mark at this point looks to be capping, with at least some CIN remaining on most NAM or GFS soundings valid for 00z the evening in question.
Click to expand...

Just to note on this sounding, the model is decoupling the boundary layer creating the CIN. That is a very known GFS bias.
 
Kory said:
12z runs continue to advertise a threat into MS/TN and easing into AL later on Saturday. Question will be quality of moisture, but the due westerly 500mb flow indicates a supercellular mode. Still a lot of questions....

The bigger threats may come the following weekend as there is a strong signal from the 27th until the 30th or so. Just keep an eye as the last week in April is often climo favored.
Click to expand...

Both GFS and Euro with ensembles are wanting to eject a large long wave trough in this period.
 
Overnight runs (outside the GFS) and this morning's NAM is showing this weekend's system coming in much flatter. In this scenario, it would be hard pressed to get any severe of note.

Meanwhile, we really need a widespread rain and I'm hoping it starts with this weekend. Otherwise, we'll be entering summer much like last year in which we did not receive much from mid-April onward and it led to a significant drought that developed quite rapidly.
 
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