Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Would like to hear everyone's thoughts on the upcoming severe weather season. The pattern has been quite active lately. I know some have mentioned an early start as well.
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Spring 2017 Severe Weather.
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Kory
Member
I'm on the fence with regards to the upcoming pattern. Strong Pacific jet modeled with troughing from Alaska into Western Canada and down into the Western U.S. in the 7-10 day range and beyond. Problem as been the disjointed ejection of troughs outside of the late November event. We've had strong shear, little instability (which are common this time of the year), but little time for sufficient moisture return. Then, troughs have had a lot of subtropical jet influence tapping warmer mid level temps (thus limiting instability).
Despite limited ocean cooperation and only 2 weekly readings that reached Nina threshold since Mid November, this pattern has been largely La Nina like. That bodes well for an active latter half of winter into Spring...
Despite limited ocean cooperation and only 2 weekly readings that reached Nina threshold since Mid November, this pattern has been largely La Nina like. That bodes well for an active latter half of winter into Spring...
SASQUATCH
Member
Voldermort!
ARCC
Member
GFS and the ensembles are trying to key in on a broad based trough ejecting out if the west in the 200hr time frame. Strong flow out of the Caribbean as well.
Parallel GFS, Euro, and EPS also keying in on the idea of a broad-based, intense system ejecting out a little beyond that 200 hr timeframe... more like 240 or just beyond. Regardless, the large scale players that would drive what happens with a synoptic system... are all supportive of a potentially significant threat. We'll have to watch this carefully in the coming days.
Kory
Member
Operational Euro and its ensembles have been the most bullish so far. And the 12z run says next Friday/Saturday might feature some potential issues in regards to severe weather. Will definitely want to keep an eye on that time frame and we're still over a week out so things can change.
The Parallel GFS has been right there with them with intense solutions from time to time, such as yesterday's 12Z run...
ARCC
Member
The GFS is locked on.
There are some timing differences, but the overall consistency in the large scale ideas between the operational GFS, parallel GFS, GFS ensembles, Canadian, Euro, and Euro ensembles... is a little unsettling. Thankfully, there is plenty of time for changes, but this is the type of model to model and run to run consistency we don't see very often...
We honestly have such consistency that, if this lasts another day or so, we can probably even start a system-specific thread... since there is one individual synoptic system to track. Almost to that point...
We honestly have such consistency that, if this lasts another day or so, we can probably even start a system-specific thread... since there is one individual synoptic system to track. Almost to that point...
- Staff
- #10
There he is!! HEY FRED!!
- Thread starter
- #11
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Good insight and excellent discussion as well. A lot to watch. Things may be heating soon.
I think this pattern has a lot of potential for severe in the southeast. There are some elements that would argue against that, but these
Fred, I agree...lots of potential in the coming weeks...also the run after run consistency has many at times signaled a major event. Of course, the mesoscale features have to be right.
- Moderator
- #13
What's the latest thinking on the possible severe threat next week?
Timhsv
Member
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
215 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017
Edited for emphasis :
It`s at this point in the Extended portion of the forecast that
models diverge quite a bit with respect to the weekend ahead. While
the GFS is typically more bullish with WAA ahead of developing storm
systems, it`s currently forecasting highs in the mid/upper 70s
Friday and probable severe weather for the region next weekend. By
comparison, the ECMWF is showing highs in the lower 60s during this
time, with a pretty substantial shot at moderate to heavy rainfall
(with QPF this far out already above an inch) and a few storms. That
said, will not make many changes other than to add in the potential
for thunder in the grids for the weekend ahead. Even SPC has a
marginal risk for severe weather mentioned in their discussion this
far out, but due to the low confidence in model agreement, they`re
not sold on the potential either. It`s not often that we get to
enjoy warm and mild conditions like this in January and not pay for
it (at some point, anyway). Stay tuned!
Long story short for Tuesday through Sunday morning of next week:
temperatures will generally remain 5-10 degrees above normal (at
least), with rain chances (with a few storms) expected almost daily.
Severe weather is *possible* but not completely *probable* at this
point next weekend. Daytime highs will be in the middle to upper
60s, with a few 70s here and there across the area. Morning lows
will be mild as well, running in the lower to middle 50s. For
reference, normal highs this time of year are around 50-52F with
morning lows around the freezing mark.
Right after we started talking about the unusual and unsettling model consistency, the models heard us and said "Hold my beer".... that's what happened
- Moderator
- #16
ROFL!!
CoreyandFrosty
Member
Right after we started talking about the unusual and unsettling model consistency, the models heard us and said "Hold my beer".... that's what happened
So....the models aren't show severe any more?
Definitely not the case. In fact, the new incoming 00Z Euro is quite ugly looking for MS/AL/TN/GA for Sunday. There's just been a lot of inconsistency the last few days with how the trough is handled because of some blocking and troughing downstream off the East Coast. We are starting to get at least a little more confidence in what happens with that, though, and the model data is starting to head back in an ugly direction again.
- Thread starter
- #19
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
GFS looks to be on board thats an ugly closed of low on the 12z run as Fred stated the other day if we continue to see this outcome painted in modeling may be time to fire up a system specific thread in a day or two.
Also the usually conservative Brian Peters is already talking about this
"The big event as we saw yesterday and as we see again today is for a major trough/closed low to come out of the Southwest US into Texas on Sunday and move across the Lower Mississippi River on Monday. If this pattern does verify, then we are looking at the potential for a fairly serious severe weather episode across a good chunk of the Southeast US. Again, model differences and uncertainty this far out preclude a specific severe weather forecast, but the evolution of this feature will need to be watched carefully in future model runs."
Also the usually conservative Brian Peters is already talking about this
"The big event as we saw yesterday and as we see again today is for a major trough/closed low to come out of the Southwest US into Texas on Sunday and move across the Lower Mississippi River on Monday. If this pattern does verify, then we are looking at the potential for a fairly serious severe weather episode across a good chunk of the Southeast US. Again, model differences and uncertainty this far out preclude a specific severe weather forecast, but the evolution of this feature will need to be watched carefully in future model runs."
Will be interesting to see how the instability pans out. While the dynamics seem impressive, I could see coastal convection limiting potential...however, the zonal flow we have been seeing could also lead to a potent EML.
