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Spring 2017 Severe Weather. (1 Viewer)

Will the season be...

  • Above average

    Votes: 26 61.9%
  • Average

    Votes: 13 31.0%
  • Below average

    Votes: 3 7.1%

  • Total voters
    42

NWMSGuy

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The daily running TNI is at some of the highest readings I've ever seen (currently at ~+2.8). Aided by enhanced trades in the Central Equatorial Pacific and reduced trades in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. This looks to continue for the next few weeks as well.
Kory, any thoughts on the system around the 24th of this Month?
 

Taylor Campbell

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The pattern still looks to shift into a more active one for severe weather next week, but model consistency/agreement of particular systems is horrid. GFS ensembles have a large spread of solutions and the operational GFS, EURO have varied significantly from run to run.
 
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Kory

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The pattern still looks to shift into a more active one for severe weather next week, but model consistency/agreement of particular systems is horrid. GFS ensembles have a large spread of solutions and the operational GFS, EURO have varied significantly from run to run.
Yeah, anytime you're dealing with a jet extension across the North Pac, you're gonna see wild swings. Bottom line, we're gonna see a different pattern ahead than the past few weeks.
 
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I'd bet on a fair bit of severe weather in the coming few weeks, and the possibility of a few tornado outbreaks, maybe a significant one, is there. That being said, as usual for this time of year it looks like the biggest threat will probably end up being straight-line wind damage.
 
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Xenesthis

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I'd bet on a fair bit of severe weather in the coming few weeks, and the possibility of a few tornado outbreaks, maybe a significant one, is there. That being said, as usual for this time of year it looks like the biggest threat will probably end up being straight-line wind damage.

I am still sticking to my original statement. I truly believe we are in for a major tornado outbreak! Time will tell but my data screams big issues!
 
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I am still sticking to my original statement. I truly believe we are in for a major tornado outbreak! Time will tell but my data screams big issues!
Yeah under most circumstances I'm fairly neutral on the "weather weenie-casting" (as opposed to the people who either say "oh, it's gonna be nothing, just a couple of hail reports" or the people who say "It's April 27/May 3/insert other catastrophic outbreak here all over again!"), but this one is looking downright dangerous based on the GFS. The ECMWF on the other hand is being much more conservative. Even this far out I'd advise everyone in the lower MS Valley and Ark-La-Tex area keep a very close eye on the forecast in the coming days to see which one ends up being right.
 
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Xenesthis

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Yeah under most circumstances I'm fairly neutral on the "weather weenie-casting" (as opposed to the people who either say "oh, it's gonna be nothing, just a couple of hail reports" or the people who say "It's April 27/May 3/insert other catastrophic outbreak here all over again!"), but this one is looking downright dangerous based on the GFS. The ECMWF on the other hand is being much more conservative. Even this far out I'd advise everyone in the lower MS Valley and Ark-La-Tex area keep a very close eye on the forecast in the coming days to see which one ends up being right.

Agreed! Honestly even if it isn't this event I do believe based on my data that a major event will occur.. This event does fit my time frame though which has me concerned! The GFS solution would be nasty if it verifies
 

MichelleH

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Yeah under most circumstances I'm fairly neutral on the "weather weenie-casting" (as opposed to the people who either say "oh, it's gonna be nothing, just a couple of hail reports" or the people who say "It's April 27/May 3/insert other catastrophic outbreak here all over again!"), but this one is looking downright dangerous based on the GFS. The ECMWF on the other hand is being much more conservative. Even this far out I'd advise everyone in the lower MS Valley and Ark-La-Tex area keep a very close eye on the forecast in the coming days to see which one ends up being right.


What is the timeframe on this? Thanks!
 
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Xenesthis

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What is the timeframe on this? Thanks!

Well my current thinking was 3/24-4-3 but with the rapid increase in TNI that may push the date back due to the coloration not being closer to 100 percent. Before the TNI jumped the correlation was around 93%. I don't have it perfected yet but the data suggests a very severe event. Unfortunately I may learn a lot from this year as far as timing goes for future forecasts but right now that's my best estimate. I really do feel my data points to a very significant event happening and I do believe timing can be nailed down but it's not perfect yet. This maybe the year that helps nail down the timing even if i am off by a bit meaning a week or two. I hope the results leed to a conclusion that will ultimately get this down to a 10-14 day period. That would be huge going forward!
 

Kory

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SPC has introduced a severe threat for Day 7 (Friday) across Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas. I'm surprised they outlook a region this far out given run to run inconsistencies, but 00z runs had enough consistency to outlook a region.

For Day 8 (Saturday), all of that shifts east into the MS Valley and Dixie. A LOT of inconsistency during this period leaves a lot of questions. Enough of a return flow should permit a sufficient warm sector for some severe storms. But, questions remain on the exact evolution of the trough as it ejects eastward.
 
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Xenesthis

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SPC has introduced a severe threat for Day 7 (Friday) across Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas. I'm surprised they outlook a region this far out given run to run inconsistencies, but 00z runs had enough consistency to outlook a region.

For Day 8 (Saturday), all of that shifts east into the MS Valley and Dixie. A LOT of inconsistency during this period leaves a lot of questions. Enough of a return flow should permit a sufficient warm sector for some severe storms. But, questions remain on the exact evolution of the trough as it ejects eastward.

As a side note day 8 looks like it's a bit out of phase with the instability and the shear values. I will be curious to see how this evolves over the next couple of days. Will it remain out of phase or does it all come together? Time will tell
 

Timhsv

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Just looking quickly I may say, Later next week with EC showing showing large, SW flow, almost slight, negative tilt, and lower amplitude to some degree......Game on possibly ..
 
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SPC has introduced a severe threat for Day 7 (Friday) across Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas. I'm surprised they outlook a region this far out given run to run inconsistencies, but 00z runs had enough consistency to outlook a region.

For Day 8 (Saturday), all of that shifts east into the MS Valley and Dixie. A LOT of inconsistency during this period leaves a lot of questions. Enough of a return flow should permit a sufficient warm sector for some severe storms. But, questions remain on the exact evolution of the trough as it ejects eastward.
I've only been interested in severe weather since October 2014, but I don't think I've ever seen the SPC issue a risk area this far out. They're either putting a lot of faith in the 00z runs or seeing something we aren't. It's a bit worrying.
 
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Has anyone else been having trouble with the clickable soundings from Pivotal Weather being significantly delayed or never being available at all for several weeks now? The 12Z GFS at hour 156 still shows "soundings not available" as I am trying to sample that 1.5-3k j/kg CAPE environment progged over TX/OK. Frustrating.
 

Kory

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Has anyone else been having trouble with the clickable soundings from Pivotal Weather being significantly delayed or never being available at all for several weeks now? The 12Z GFS at hour 156 still shows "soundings not available" as I am trying to sample that 1.5-3k j/kg CAPE environment progged over TX/OK. Frustrating.
Tropical Tidbits has point and click soundings now.
 
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Xenesthis

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Tropical Tidbits has point and click soundings now.

This Saturday's system doesn't really have me concerned..... However next Wednesday 3/29 has my full attention even this far out
 

warneagle

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Has anyone else been having trouble with the clickable soundings from Pivotal Weather being significantly delayed or never being available at all for several weeks now? The 12Z GFS at hour 156 still shows "soundings not available" as I am trying to sample that 1.5-3k j/kg CAPE environment progged over TX/OK. Frustrating.

I've had issues with it on the GFS, usually for times that are further out from the present; was just noticing it today, although I wasn't sure if that was the site or my work computer that dates to the Reagan administration.
 

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