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Spring 2017 Severe Weather.

Will the season be...

  • Above average

    Votes: 26 61.9%

  • Average

    Votes: 13 31.0%

  • Below average

    Votes: 3 7.1%
  • Total voters
    42
ENH for a good chunk of Iowa today. That area right along the warm front will definitely be worth watching.
 
Hmm seeing a very sneaky severe threat on both GFS and Euro in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Shear vectors would be extremely favorable for supercells along with good low level helicity. We need to watch this closely.
 
ARCC said:
Hmm seeing a very sneaky severe threat on both GFS and Euro in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Shear vectors would be extremely favorable for supercells along with good low level helicity. We need to watch this closely.
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I was thinking the same thing..there will be a clash of air masses considering the cool shot coming in behind that system for next weekend
 
Damn. Really thought this was going to be the one with real teeth given that the Euro was on board. Then it became equally on board with throwing wrench after wrench into things. Andyhb on americanwx (who I believe is also a member here, although doesn't post here as often) pretty well summed it up here:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...on-sun-424-30/?do=findComment&comment=4547987

Eric Cartman will now give his opinion on this so-called "active pattern":

 
ARCC said:
Hmm seeing a very sneaky severe threat on both GFS and Euro in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Shear vectors would be extremely favorable for supercells along with good low level helicity. We need to watch this closely.
Click to expand...

It needs attention for the possibility of significant changes that could really ramp up the threat. This is evident by a few operational runs, and ensemble members. With all that lies ahead, it's open.
 
Daryl said:
Almost through with april and i believe only 1 tornado this month at ef3 or stronger in the us.
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That's right, even though there were average to slightly above average numbers, there were almost no strong tornadoes which is interesting. It also makes me wonder when the next violent tornado this year will be, or if 2017 will be a bit like 2005, with only one off-season violent tornado.

To be completely fair, even though it didn't do much damage, the Dimmitt tornado was probably violent at some point.
 
Well, April closed out on an active note, with 2 preliminary EF-3 ratings out of Canton, TX.

Another potentially active period for the middle of next week with a low amplitude system coming out of the Plains. As of now, the instability remains relatively confined to the Gulf Coast. Some caveats to a more northward extent is a perturbation in the 500mb flow ahead of the best dynamics with the trough which limit inland progression. Otherwise, we'd have some problems with these kind of profiles being shown.

Bottom line, the Gulf Coast (particularly SE TX and South LA) need to keep an eye on Wednesday into Thursday...
 
One weird thing I've noticed is that the SPC's WCM page is usually updated by April, but it's nearly the second week of May and there's still no sign of the data from 2016. I wonder what's taking so long. Is it just because 2017 has been so active so far?
 
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