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Winter WX Snow Threat on Tuesday (Jan 16, 2018)

AL_ham_op

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I’m sure there will be some issues, just not sure if there is enough to cause enough problems for everything to be shut down in this area tomorrow.

I guess we will just see how things play out.
I agree. It looks like this event may be wrapping up for Central AL. It was too warm this morning and the precip looks to be breaking up on the radar. Lots of dry areas between bands of snow rather than one solid mass of snow like it was earlier

Better safe than sorry I guess.
 

Blizzard1

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Hey folks, hope all is well. As for those saying it is a bust or not going to be bad, you have to let it play out. There is a lot going on and dynamics at play that could change this quickly. There is no need to go cliff jumping so soon.
 

AL_ham_op

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Hey folks, hope all is well. As for those saying it is a bust or not going to be bad, you have to let it play out. There is a lot going on and dynamics at play that could change this quickly. There is no need to go cliff jumping so soon.
I think most are concerned about how warm it was this morning and yesterday and then seeing how the bands appear to be breaking up on the radar.

I know we need a lot of precip to cool things down enough for things to really stick, I'm just not sure that we will still have enough precip coming in once the ground/roads cool down.
 

Lori

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From what I'm understanding, it's not about snow amounts but the temp drop and any amount of moisture freezing on the roads!


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Kory

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From what I'm understanding, it's not about snow amounts but the temp drop and any amount of moisture freezing on the roads!


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Bingo. We’ve already have puddles and wet roads and sidewalks with air temps in the 20s.
 

TuckerTerry

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Yes, I don't want any part of being out there in ice. My CEO is dismissing us at 4:30 to get us home. We generally work until 6.
 

Evan

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I think most are concerned about how warm it was this morning and yesterday and then seeing how the bands appear to be breaking up on the radar.

I know we need a lot of precip to cool things down enough for things to really stick, I'm just not sure that we will still have enough precip coming in once the ground/roads cool down.

This is not a typical situation. This will start as snow and end as snow. Ground temps have been cold for weeks. Less than 24-36 hours of surface temperatures above freezing in most areas, and weak solar radiation is not enough to warm ground temperatures or road surfaces above freezing for any significant period of time. I reached 39 today, yet temps have been below freezing since about 12:45.

The atmosphere is well saturated with moisture. Any precip will fall as snow and rapidly cool surface and ground temps. The brief period of time most of us spent above freezing actually means an initial melting and immediate freeze to an icy glaze instead of 100% snow on roads. Especially true on secondary roads and less traveled highways. And, it won't be sustained long enough to actually impact snow totals, but will be enough to impact road conditions.
 

Blizzard1

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I think most are concerned about how warm it was this morning and yesterday and then seeing how the bands appear to be breaking up on the radar.

I know we need a lot of precip to cool things down enough for things to really stick, I'm just not sure that we will still have enough precip coming in once the ground/roads cool down.

Well, the temps won't be a problem, they will drop and the changeover won't take long. There was a dry push of air that stunted the expansion of the first band as well but the system is already regrouping and according to the NWS there will be features that could cause forcing here later and enhance the amounts. This is where patience is called for. A heavy band can drop a lot quickly.
 

AL_ham_op

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We've been having dandruff sized flakes here for about an hour now and everything that has melted on the road has dried up. I'm just not seeing the hype.
 

Evan

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I would add that even predicting what the radar looks like 30-45 minutes from now in a snow event like this is extremely imprecise. A difference of 25-50 miles or 30 - 60 minutes may be the difference between the Bham metro (or your area) experiencing serious travel issues vs relatively minor ones.
 

The Colonel

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The HRRR LOVES East Alabama. Matter of fact, I believe you can see some of the rebirth taking place in C MS on the northern fringes of the line
 
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