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buckeye05

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Yeah I don't like to think about the idea of two EF4s that should have been rated EF5 from the outbreak, but sometimes it does cross my mind. Also, am I just seeing things, or are there large anchor bolts visible along the perimeter of the slabbed house in the background of the interview at 1:04?
 

WhirlingWx

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I think the big takeaway is that people should stop looking too hard into the "EF5 drought," because just because no tornado has been rated EF5 since 2013, doesn't mean that we haven't had a single tornado actually attain EF5 winds in that timeframe since then. Several potential/likely candidates for EF5 intensity post-2013 that have been recently mentioned in this thread include Chapman, Rochelle, Bassfield, and even Louisville. I think a lot of us do agree that Vilonia actually caused EF5 damage, and just wasn't rated as such because of the massive oversight by LZK's lead surveyor for the event. All of this is while also excluding any of the EF4 tornadoes from the Pilger supercell (of which one or more could have attained EF5 strength), and I'm probably missing some other examples as well.
 

Nightking2021

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I remember some years ago talking with a guy from NWS in Jackson named Alan Gerard. I know that they tend to do really well with rating tornadoes properly but Alan Gerard told he is really conservative with giving out an EF5 rating. I know the Philadelphia, MS tornado was originally rated an EF4 with winds around 180 mph. However, since over two feet of topsoil was removed from an area prompted to upgrade to an EF5 with winds of 205 mph. If that had not been discovered it would have remained an EF4 with 180 mph winds. In fact Louisville was assigned a winds speed of 185 mph, Bassfield was assigned a wind of 190 mph, and Philadelphia a wind of 205 mph. Those are the three highest wind speeds I have known that office to assign to a tornado ever since the EF-scale was implemented. So it may be possible the Louisville, MS tornado was conservatively rated an EF4. However, I am not 100% sure of that either.
 

pohnpei

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I believe this even not that 185 rating house, didn't look like the 170mph rating house north of the 185mph rating house either. Not very sure the exact location of this house, but at most 170mph rating by NWS. The exact same feature that many slabs of this one and Vilonia were largely ignored or overlooked was not good at all.
Yeah I don't like to think about the idea of two EF4s that should have been rated EF5 from the outbreak, but sometimes it does cross my mind. Also, am I just seeing things, or are there large anchor bolts visible along the perimeter of the slabbed house in the background of the interview at 1:04?
 

Nightking2021

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I believe this even not that 185 rating house, didn't look like the 170mph rating house north of the 185mph rating house either. Not very sure the exact location of this house, but at most 170mph rating by NWS. The exact same feature that many slabs of this one and Vilonia were largely ignored or overlooked was not good at all.
I know the Vilonia 2014 tornado should have been rated EF5 but the Louisville, MS tornado seems like a questionable EF5 as well. Another thing I believe Alan Gerard told me was he was considering rating one of the Mississippi tornadoes from 11/24/01 an F5 but decided to go with a high-end F4 rating. Does anyone know if the Philadelphia, MS tornado may have caused EF5 damage to a home? Because the main reason for the upgrade to an EF5 was based on incredible ground scouring.
 

buckeye05

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I know the Vilonia 2014 tornado should have been rated EF5 but the Louisville, MS tornado seems like a questionable EF5 as well. Another thing I believe Alan Gerard told me was he was considering rating one of the Mississippi tornadoes from 11/24/01 an F5 but decided to go with a high-end F4 rating. Does anyone know if the Philadelphia, MS tornado may have caused EF5 damage to a home? Because the main reason for the upgrade to an EF5 was based on incredible ground scouring.
Gerard's comments about Philadelphia make sense and I do remember when the initial survey of that tornado was made public, it was rated EF4. It leveled and partially swept away a brick home, but it was older and not all that well anchored. Overall, besides the insane ground scouring, there wasn't anything else that was clearly EF5 along the path, and there definitely wasn't any EF5 structural damage. The rating of EF5 is well-deserved, but is pretty much based entirely on the very deep ground scouring.
 

pohnpei

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I know the Vilonia 2014 tornado should have been rated EF5 but the Louisville, MS tornado seems like a questionable EF5 as well. Another thing I believe Alan Gerard told me was he was considering rating one of the Mississippi tornadoes from 11/24/01 an F5 but decided to go with a high-end F4 rating. Does anyone know if the Philadelphia, MS tornado may have caused EF5 damage to a home? Because the main reason for the upgrade to an EF5 was based on incredible ground scouring.
The one from 01/11/24 seems to be Madison MS tornado that oak posted two days ago.
https://talkweather.com/threads/significant-tornado-events.1276/page-154#post-57686
EF4 damage for sure but not very sure about F/EF5 intensity based on overall contextual damage and debris granulation level.
I do have a rough feeling that several years like 2000 and 2001 before the Laplata event happened, there was a period that many tornados was rated too liberal. Like Granite Fall MN tornado 2000 was rated F4 based on vehicle damage alone. Xenia OH tornado was rated F4 based on one house collapsed with another house's second floor fall on to it and Altoona tornado that was discussed several days ago.
Xenia tornado F4 damage:
tornando-xenia00_nat-weather-serv.png
 
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Nightking2021

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Gerard's comments about Philadelphia make sense and I do remember when the initial survey of that tornado was made public, it was rated EF4. It leveled and partially swept away a brick home, but it was older and not all that well anchored. Overall, besides the insane ground scouring, there wasn't anything else that was clearly EF5 along the path, and there definitely wasn't any EF5 structural damage. The rating of EF5 is well-deserved, but is pretty much based entirely on the very deep ground scouring.
I agree with you but wasn't sure about the home damage in Philadelphia, MS. The deep ground scouring was way too incredible to not go with an EF5 rating.
 

pohnpei

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I agree with you but wasn't sure about the home damage in Philadelphia, MS. The deep ground scouring was way too incredible to not go with an EF5 rating.
The EF4 structure damage from Philadelphia. The contextual damage was not very extreme around these houses.
But, yes, the ground scouring at that place was unimagiable
prince-chapel-damage2.jpgImg_2021-04-07-12-52-00.jpg
 

locomusic01

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I can't believe I'm actually saying it, but after roughly 25 years, the Tupelo - Gainesville article is done.


Fair warning: it may take you as long to read it as it took me to write it - I got a tad carried away. Also can't promise anything quality-wise since I haven't even had time to proofread or edit. Hopefully nothing's screwed up too bad.

As I noted at the top of the article, I colorized a bunch of the photos, particularly for Tupelo & Gainesville. I wasn't sure I liked it at first, but the more I looked at them, the more I felt like it made it easier to pick out details that your eyes can kinda gloss over in black & white photos. I paid to have a few of them done, did some myself and used a couple colorizer tools for others, so the accuracy can be kinda.. hit and miss lol. I think it turned out okay though.
 

speedbump305

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I can't believe I'm actually saying it, but after roughly 25 years, the Tupelo - Gainesville article is done.


Fair warning: it may take you as long to read it as it took me to write it - I got a tad carried away. Also can't promise anything quality-wise since I haven't even had time to proofread or edit. Hopefully nothing's screwed up too bad.

As I noted at the top of the article, I colorized a bunch of the photos, particularly for Tupelo & Gainesville. I wasn't sure I liked it at first, but the more I looked at them, the more I felt like it made it easier to pick out details that your eyes can kinda gloss over in black & white photos. I paid to have a few of them done, did some myself and used a couple colorizer tools for others, so the accuracy can be kinda.. hit and miss lol. I think it turned out okay though.
YESSSSS CONGRATULATIONS!!!
 
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I can't believe I'm actually saying it, but after roughly 25 years, the Tupelo - Gainesville article is done.


Fair warning: it may take you as long to read it as it took me to write it - I got a tad carried away. Also can't promise anything quality-wise since I haven't even had time to proofread or edit. Hopefully nothing's screwed up too bad.

As I noted at the top of the article, I colorized a bunch of the photos, particularly for Tupelo & Gainesville. I wasn't sure I liked it at first, but the more I looked at them, the more I felt like it made it easier to pick out details that your eyes can kinda gloss over in black & white photos. I paid to have a few of them done, did some myself and used a couple colorizer tools for others, so the accuracy can be kinda.. hit and miss lol. I think it turned out okay though.
Man, those colorized photos from Tupelo are really impressive. There were a couple Tupelo photographs I'd liked to have seen used in the article that weren't but as a whole the article was fantastic (as they always are). Serious question: given the lack of documentation of African-American fatalities from this event do you think an argument could be made that the Tupelo tornado killed 300-500+ people? I'm not just talking in the city itself but in rural areas and communities before and after it? So many Dixie events likely have hugely underestimated death dolls due to the Jim Crow era racism, it seems.
 

speedbump305

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I really hate the question “ Vilonia vs Louisville “ because i really do not know what to pick, I will say this, the tree damage caused by the Louisville tornado was EXTRAORDINARY and was comparable to bassfield. vilonia in my opinion produced more intense damage, but i have a feeling louisville would have been absolutely horrible if it hit something at EF5 intensity
 

locomusic01

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Man, those colorized photos from Tupelo are really impressive. There were a couple Tupelo photographs I'd liked to have seen used in the article that weren't but as a whole the article was fantastic (as they always are). Serious question: given the lack of documentation of African-American fatalities from this event do you think an argument could be made that the Tupelo tornado killed 300-500+ people? I'm not just talking in the city itself but in rural areas and communities before and after it? So many Dixie events likely have hugely underestimated death dolls due to the Jim Crow era racism, it seems.
Which photos did you have in mind? I've got more but I didn't wanna overload it too much, and some I just couldn't find in good enough quality to be usable. Re: the death toll, it was almost certainly higher than the official number, but probably not massively higher. Some of the African American newspapers of the era at least ran lists of names, so we have some idea of who was killed/missing, but they certainly weren't exhaustive.

I found accounts of 4-5 deaths just in the Auburn/Eggville area that don't seem to have been officially recorded, and that was just in the course of doing general research. I'm sure there are more out there, not to mention injured people who died days, weeks or months later. If I were to wildly speculate, I think 250+ is probably a pretty reasonable estimate for Tupelo. Gainesville is harder just because, well.. I'm sure I don't need to explain what fire can do to people.

There's actually not that much ambiguity regarding the death tolls for the other tornadoes, with the possible exception of Columbia. The mining village that was destroyed was mostly populated by very poor families, most of whom were Black. Pretty much the extent of the coverage there was "many people were injured." Considering the damage done in that area, I'd be pretty surprised if only two people were ultimately killed.
 
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Which photos did you have in mind? I've got more but I didn't wanna overload it too much, and some I just couldn't find in good enough quality to be usable. Re: the death toll, it was almost certainly higher than the official number, but probably not massively higher. Some of the African American newspapers of the era at least ran lists of names, so we have some idea of who was killed/missing, but they certainly weren't exhaustive.

I found accounts of 4-5 deaths just in the Auburn/Eggville area that don't seem to have been officially recorded, and that was just in the course of doing general research. I'm sure there are more out there, not to mention injured people who died days, weeks or months later. If I were to wildly speculate, I think 250+ is probably a pretty reasonable estimate for Tupelo. Gainesville is harder just because, well.. I'm sure I don't need to explain what fire can do to people.

There's actually not that much ambiguity regarding the death tolls for the other tornadoes, with the possible exception of Columbia. The mining village that was destroyed was mostly populated by very poor families, most of whom were Black. Pretty much the extent of the coverage there was "many people were injured." Considering the damage done in that area, I'd be pretty surprised if only two people were ultimately killed.
You got most of the photos I wanted to see, the ones that come to mind are of the concrete Confederate monument and brick fence/gate posts that were toppled. Also, two other photos of destruction in Tupelo that I didn't see in your article (although I may have skimmed some sections a bit too fast) I've posted below:

19360405TUPELO.jpg
1612355453021.png

The Confederate memorial:

Tupelo_6.png
Tupelo.png
 
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