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A Guy

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Things don't happen without there being some motivation for them to be done. From the NWS perspective there's nothing to be gained by going back over the things they've already gone back over, which leaves it to those more interested in the subject to do that. The NWS could consider the deeper research done by others; after all one person would be enough to verify what has been said and if need be alter the database to a more accurate status.

Apparently they see little point in accurate records when they fail to do even this. That naturally makes me wonder about their accuracy of what happens today.
You could argue that there was nothing to gain from the various hurricane reanalyses they've done over the years (some of which for the data is very sparse). The actual changes to the hurricane climatology have been more or less slight AFAIK. Yet they've done them over a long period and will probably keep doing them in the future.

Of course there are some differences. Tornadoes were a lot more underreported before the WSR88D network was complete, which massively increases uncertainty. Tropical cyclones don't suddenly dissipate with a new one forming shortly afterwards on the same track. They're much bigger and don't do weird things like split into multiple vortices which might fool people into thinking a new one's formed. The physical relationships are simpler and less dependent on subjective data.

But there are people right now writing and publishing papers making claims based on the offical tornado data, which is not that accurate especially if you want to do any kind of analysis that uses paths rather than points. Our pre-April 27 knowledge of what might be possible in Dixie Alley was significantly influenced by our knowledge of the outbreaks in 1884, 1908, 1920, 1932 and 1936. Whereas the early part of the official period was evidently rather quiet down there.
 

locomusic01

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Hey all

Regarding Worcester 53, some fellow on the comments of a YouTube says there was a multi-year study to determine if it was F5 or not, and that they determined they couldn't conclude one way or another. Is anyone familiar with that study?
My memory of the event is a little fuzzy at this point, but I don't recall hearing of any multi-year studies. I know there's been talk at a couple of points about whether it could be upgraded though and the consensus basically seems to be "it's too long ago to know for sure." Which is fair tbh - I personally think it's a decent F5 candidate and should've been from the beginning, but if we were gonna go that route, there are tons of other events in both the distant and recent past that are more deserving. Personally my mind always goes to Palm Sunday first, although I may be slightly biased.

Edit: Totally irrelevant and off-topic, but I just checked out of curiosity and it's been over a decade since I wrote about the Flint-Worcester outbreak. Good lord. Also just realized/remembered I used to post articles like every few months, and now I think I'm averaging about one every two years. It's too damn early for something so depressing lol
 
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Sawmaster

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"...But there are people right now writing and publishing papers making claims based on the official tornado data, which is not that accurate especially if you want to do any kind of analysis that uses paths rather than points..."
When you don't know something and no amount of research finds it, there's no reason for blame. But when you do know something or can find it yet you still do nothing about it then there's blame aplenty to be laid. Science is based on fact and accuracy so any intentional lack of doing the best to find fact accurately undermines that whole segment of science.

The quality of any result depends entirely on the quality of what it's based on. When you know that what you're basing your work on could be bettered, then that's where you must start if you want your work to be better that what has been done before.
 

locomusic01

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You could argue that there was nothing to gain from the various hurricane reanalyses they've done over the years (some of which for the data is very sparse). The actual changes to the hurricane climatology have been more or less slight AFAIK. Yet they've done them over a long period and will probably keep doing them in the future.

Of course there are some differences. Tornadoes were a lot more underreported before the WSR88D network was complete, which massively increases uncertainty. Tropical cyclones don't suddenly dissipate with a new one forming shortly afterwards on the same track. They're much bigger and don't do weird things like split into multiple vortices which might fool people into thinking a new one's formed. The physical relationships are simpler and less dependent on subjective data.

But there are people right now writing and publishing papers making claims based on the offical tornado data, which is not that accurate especially if you want to do any kind of analysis that uses paths rather than points. Our pre-April 27 knowledge of what might be possible in Dixie Alley was significantly influenced by our knowledge of the outbreaks in 1884, 1908, 1920, 1932 and 1936. Whereas the early part of the official period was evidently rather quiet down there.
Any kind of credible, large-scale reanalysis effort for tornadoes would be incredibly time-consuming and labor-intensive, but you could definitely make an argument that it's both necessary and worth doing. It's not a great sign that, as you know, the more you study the tornado record the more you realize how maddeningly inconsistent, inaccurate and error-prone it is.

Of course, we owe a huge debt to guys like Fujita, Grazulis, etc. for building as comprehensive a record as we have in the first place, and we're fortunate to have it, but.. woof. It'd still be nice if there were some effort to at least correct the most egregious efforts. It'd be a monumental task to fix everything, but it honestly wouldn't take that much work to make enough corrections to significantly improve the quality of the record.
 

A Guy

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Totally irrelevant and off-topic, but I just checked out of curiosity and it's been over a decade since I wrote about the Flint-Worcester outbreak. Good lord. Also just realized/remembered I used to post articles like every few months, and now I think I'm averaging about one every two years. It's too damn early for something so depressing lol
I can remember when your Enigma Outbreak article was new. I also remember reading about the 2013 Moore tornado early in the morning while eating breakfast before school, on the prior version of this website. Seems like a world away now.
 

A Guy

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I've finally managed to come up with some settings on Sentinel Hub that produce enough contrast (albeit in monochrome) to make looking for paths worthwhile.

Guin:
Guintrack.png

Jasper:
Jasperpath.png

First Tanner, second Tanner and Tims Ford Lake. You have to look carefully at this one but you can see part of all three. Interestingly I'm struggling to see the first anything for the first Tanner tornado north of the Tennessee River when it was supposedly at its most intense:
tannertimsfordlake.png
 
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Elie, MB technically speaking.
That tornado still confuses me to this day. There's no reason why it should've caused F5 damage.
It did its F5 damage when it was in its rope phase; often the constriction of the funnel during this phase accelerates the wind speeds which is likely what happened here. Normally, the roping out phase won't do any damage as the tornado is moving onward but Elie basically meandered over the exact same spot its whole life so it was able to do F5 damage where it did.
 
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Just for the sake of curiosity, can anyone think of any tornadoes that did extreme damage in a town but relatively little outside of it?
Sherman, TX from 1896 is another good example; it's also a contender with New Richmond for being the most violent tornado of the 19th century based on damage pics available. It reminds me lots of Elie, Manitoba 2007 in terms of how it did its most extreme damage in its roping-out phase. Before it was a standard Plains wedge that did some damage in countryside areas but not much.
 
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I had the exact same reaction, had to do a double take when I saw that.

That is a societal definition of vaporized, a metaphorical delete button is what this tornado was.
What's crazy about New Richmond is that it did this damage near the end of its life; I wonder if it was in the roping out phase of its life when going through town, which could have increased the damage due to constriction of the funnel and thus acceleration of the winds within it.
Reminds me of Sherman, TX come to think of it.
 
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I've finally managed to come up with some settings on Sentinel Hub that produce enough contrast (albeit in monochrome) to make looking for paths worthwhile.

Guin:
View attachment 28654

Jasper:
View attachment 28655

First Tanner, second Tanner and Tims Ford Lake. You have to look carefully at this one but you can see part of all three. Interestingly I'm struggling to see the first anything for the first Tanner tornado north of the Tennessee River when it was supposedly at its most intense:
View attachment 28656
Have you found any damage aerials of Guin itself after the tornado went through it?
 

slenker

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It did its F5 damage when it was in its rope phase; often the constriction of the funnel during this phase accelerates the wind speeds which is likely what happened here. Normally, the roping out phase won't do any damage as the tornado is moving onward but Elie basically meandered over the exact same spot its whole life so it was able to do F5 damage where it did.
Yea, I would imagine it is the conservation of angular momentum. When the tornado shrunk, it managed to keep most of its original angular momentum because there wasn't much applying an external torque to the system, such as something about the atmosphere in that particular location that would have decreased the intensity of the tornado, but at the same time something about the atmosphere at that location was also causing it to shrink in the first place. Whatever caused that must've been incredibly conditional, and the fact it managed to intensify so dramatically just as it struck a well-built structure directly had to be one-in-a-billion. It also stalled a little as well, but video footage does show it absolutely launched that home where F5 damage occurred, so I'm willing to bet it most certainly contained ground-level winds exceeding 200 mph.
 

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Sorry for such a long wait, but it's finally here! For the 125th anniversary, the story of the most violent tornado of the 19th century:


Edit: Forgot to add, shout out to @HAwkmoon for slogging through the first half and offering feedback, even if I didn't end up having time to do much editing. Appreciate it!
Amazing article! New Richmond has by far the worst photographed tornado damage of the 19th century and it's not until the 1920s or 1930s that comparable (photographed) damage started showing up. It's also probably the strongest tornado to occur in the Twin Cities metro area.
 

A Guy

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What's crazy about New Richmond is that it did this damage near the end of its life; I wonder if it was in the roping out phase of its life when going through town, which could have increased the damage due to constriction of the funnel and thus acceleration of the winds within it.
Reminds me of Sherman, TX come to think of it.
Probably not. Both descriptions of the storm and the width of the damage path are against this idea. Rope tornadoes have a core at most a few tens of metres across.

Have you found any damage aerials of Guin itself after the tornado went through it?
No - I'm not very good at searching for photographs.
 
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TH2002

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Some other impressive photos from various points along the path of the Hackleburg-Phil Campbell Tornado
Hackleburg:
Zfw2hko.png

5666646472_04a2a07183_o-jpg.14445

Aerial and ground level views of one of the duplexes that was swept away near the Wrangler Plant. Trees in this area were completely debarked and vehicles were hurled and mangled.

Phil Campbell:
hackleburg-ef5-damage-cornelius-dr-jpg.12553

Three fatalities occurred on Cornelius Drive as every home on the cul-de-sac was obliterated.

hackleburg-ef5-damage-windrowing-jpg.12554

Woodard Road. Trees near the obliterated homes were completely shredded and debarked.

OB7eyBS.png

The Phil Campbell Housing Authority on Stalcup Circle was hard hit. Probable EF5 damage occurred here as one well-constructed duplex was leveled and mostly swept away.

phil-campbell-tornado-storm-cellar.png

15956

Aerial of the storm shelter that lost its concrete roof, and a ground level view of the same property.

hackleburg-damage-dislodged-foundation-jpg.14442

Carport slab twisted out of place and uplifted at an obliterated home along Hwy 237.

Mount Hope:
18222

The Oh Bryan's restaurant was leveled and partially swept away with such force that a small part of its poured slab foundation was cracked and uplifted.

Oak Grove:
16367

16852

hackleburg-ef5-oak-grove-jpg.12555

hackleburg-ef5-damage-oak-grove2-jpg.14324

Various ground level photos and an aerial of the well constructed, two story mansion that was completely obliterated. Tragically, a young couple died here as they abandoned their mobile home for the shelter of the larger home; in a twist of fate, it was the mobile home that ultimately ended up being untouched.
 

slenker

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hackleburg-ef5-oak-grove-jpg.12555

hackleburg-ef5-damage-oak-grove2-jpg.14324

Various ground level photos and an aerial of the well constructed, two story mansion that was completely obliterated. Tragically, a young couple died here as they abandoned their mobile home for the shelter of the larger home; in a twist of fate, it was the mobile home that ultimately ended up being untouched.
I’ve always been extremely impressed by this damage because of how complete the destruction is. The home before it was obliterated was both very large and extremely well built. This, alongside the storm cellar damage gives me the idea that Hackleburg was likely more violent than Smithville or Bridge Creek. I know that may be a bit of a hot take but I stand by it.
 
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Sawmaster

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I’ve always been extremely impressed by this damage because of how complete the destruction is. The home before it was obliterated was both very large and extremely well built. This, alongside the storm cellar damage gives me the idea that Hackleburg was likely more violent than Smithville or Bridge Creek. I know that may be a bit of a hot take but I stand by it.

All these storms were extreme but Smithville probably moreso. IMHO Hackleburg takes the title of the most overall destructive for that fateful outbreak because of it's long path and very violent nature along much of that path. Due to the mostly rural hard to access area on it's path and staff overwork much of it wasn't well-surveyed until cleanup was already underway removing evidence. Many damage pics posted online only became known long after the survey was completed due to the widespread infrastructure damage making the internet inaccessible in many areas.

Many of you may know it already, but that "extremely well-constructed home" was built after the owner's previous home was destroyed by a tornado. It had load-path connection hardware used mostly for earthquake resistance which would have rendered it about as strong as a wood-framed house can possibly be built. For it to be so utterly destroyed, and with the slab damages noted in other areas along it's very long path still boggles my mind.
 

A Guy

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It had load-path connection hardware used mostly for earthquake resistance which would have rendered it about as strong as a wood-framed house can possibly be built. For it to be so utterly destroyed, and with the slab damages noted in other areas along it's very long path still boggles my mind.
I bet you this would still only earn a 200 mph EF4 at most if it happened today. They're so nitpicky now they'd find some alleged flaw.
 

A Guy

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No it would get EF5.
Look a few years ago I'd have agreed with you, but now I'm doubtful. They seem to be both very insistent that any 'flaw' in the land path means it can't be EF5 and very nitpicky about potential flaws to the point of conjecture. It's like they don't recognise that the load path has to fail somewhere.

I recently read the actual survey report on the Elie F5. They decided to go with F5 because they thought the position of the sill plate showed it had been pulled upwards and that meant there was a good connection, rather than the more common situation of a weak connection that separates easily. Under EF scale practice I don't see that being accepted.
 
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