• Current Tropical Systems
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Marshal79344

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It just became more and more confusing for me to understand why these kinds of tornados keep producing in such marginal setup everyday.
more close view of it.
View attachment 9964
These tornadoes appear to have more visible bases and are likely of the high-CAPE low-shear type, the type that is far more prone to mesoscale accidents and may be hard to predict.
 

MNTornadoGuy

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CAPE and 500/850 mb winds according to ECMWF/GFS.
Screenshot_2021-07-02_at_11-11-56_Weathernerds_GFS.png

Screenshot_2021-07-02_at_11-11-28_Weathernerds_GFS.png

Screenshot_2021-07-02_at_11-11-08_Weathernerds_GFS.png

Screenshot_2021-07-02_at_11-07-26_Model_charts_for_USA_Temperature_ECMWF_IFS_HRES_10_days.png

Screenshot_2021-07-02_at_11-07-55_Model_charts_for_USA_Temperature_ECMWF_IFS_HRES_10_days.png

Screenshot_2021-07-02_at_11-08-13_Model_charts_for_USA_Temperature_ECMWF_IFS_HRES_10_days.png
 

pohnpei

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These tornadoes appear to have more visible bases and are likely of the high-CAPE low-shear type, the type that is far more prone to mesoscale accidents and may be hard to predict.
Yes, definitely low shear relatively high CAPE pattern. But these so called high CAPE setup was at most 2000m/j level with high LCL which seems not that favourable for strong to violent tornados but it still managed to do this with mutiple supercells this day.
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eric11

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Some preliminary thoughts:
These pics were screenshoted from a tiktok video published by natives (I believe they're Mongolians cuz they don't speak Chinese), It's very hard to locate the exact place of this tornado but judging from the viewpoint in those home video I think this one actually touched down on a hill and moved along the mountain ridge, which seems to be an extremely rare case.Tornadoes usually climb over the hill and dive into the valley as normal cases we've seen in those Dixie/Hoosier outbreaks, this one just completely changed the rule.
Region of the tornado might have occurred
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I wasn't able to identify what the tree species is, but I guess it's some kinda Quercus mongolica or Betula, both tree species were hardwood trees, which means, we're dealing with some EF5-esque tree damage.It's maybe stronger than what we saw in Funing and Chifeng EF4.
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Some extrodinary photos of the tornado itself.The tightness and general shape of the funnel reminds me of some early Great Plains violent like Seward NE F4 and Union City OK F4, both were F5 candidate.
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I'm currently trying to contact experts from Beijing Weather Bureau and National Severe Weather Center to urge them send out more experts to investigate the damage from this tornado, but I won't be surprise if the final rating would take a long long time to come above the water because there're too many tors these days and both of the weather Bureaus were in short-handed. Alongside that, I have no idea whether Chinese tornado experts are clearly aware of the tree damage relating EF scale, so let's just wait and see.
 

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eric11

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72 tornadoes including 6 EF3+s in just 2 months span and still counting......this number is dozens of times than the long term average, which makes this year one of the most active and deadliest Chinese tornado/severe weather season in the corresponding period.It is also the most active year since 2005 and maybe one of the strongest Chinese tornado season in this century.
 

MNTornadoGuy

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72 tornadoes including 6 EF3+s in just 2 months span and still counting......this number is dozens of times than the long term average, which makes this year one of the most active and deadliest Chinese tornado/severe weather season in the corresponding period.It is also the most active year since 2005 and maybe one of the strongest Chinese tornado season in this century.
There have been 2 violent candidates in only the last 7 days. I wonder if this steak of intense tornadoes will continue over the rest of July and August.
 

buckeye05

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If there’s one thing I’ve learned this year, it’s that China could really use a much more comprehensive system of hi-res radar sites, severe weather forecasters, and regional tornado damage survey teams. It’s just so active in terms of significant tornadoes!

While this is undoubtedly an above average season for China, I strongly believe it to be one of the most tornado prone areas outside of the US. I think that we’re seeing more of what goes on there tornado wise as rural areas gain access to social media, language barriers become less of an issue, and the government is likely more forthcoming (maybe?) about natural disasters. I have similar suspicions regarding tornadoes in Russia.

But even looking back over previous years, it’s apparent that strong to violent tornadoes just aren’t that rare in that region. There’s Khashaat 2014 (EF4), Foshan 2015 (EF3), Beijing 2012 (EF3), Wancheng 2016 (EF3), Kaiyuan 2019 (EF4), Chifeng 2017 (EF4), Funing 2016 (EF4), Suzhou 2020 (EF3) and many others. Tornadoes of this caliber are just not all that uncommon in China.

Also, as another poster mentioned, Chinese tornado season peaks in July and August. They’ve got a long way to go still.
 

MNTornadoGuy

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If there’s one thing I’ve learned this year, it’s that China could really use a much more comprehensive system of hi-res radar sites, severe weather forecasters, and regional tornado damage survey teams. It’s just so active in terms of significant tornadoes!

While this is undoubtedly an above average season for China, I strongly believe it to be one of the most tornado prone areas outside of the US. I think that we’re seeing more of what goes on there tornado wise as rural areas gain access to social media, language barriers become less of an issue, and the government is likely more forthcoming (maybe?) about natural disasters. I have similar suspicions regarding tornadoes in Russia.

But even looking back over previous years, it’s apparent that strong to violent tornadoes just aren’t that rare in that region. There’s Khashaat 2014 (EF4), Foshan 2015 (EF3), Beijing 2012 (EF3), Wancheng 2016 (EF3), Kaiyuan 2019 (EF4), Chifeng 2017 (EF4), Funing 2016 (EF4), Suzhou 2020 (EF3) and many others. Tornadoes of this caliber are just not all that uncommon in China.

Also, as another poster mentioned, Chinese tornado season peaks in July and August. They’ve got a long way to go still.
China also appears to have a growing community of storm chasers so some program like Skywarn could easily be set up.
 

eric11

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There have been 2 violent candidates in only the last 7 days. I wonder if this steak of intense tornadoes will continue over the rest of July and August.
Hard to say, though from the meteorological aspect, Chinese peak tornado season is Juy and August, but a large number of them depend on the cold vortex exhibiting in northern parts of China and typhoons as well. The historical active tornado season largely attributes to the extreme active cold vortex this year (which also cause largest flash flood in Northeastern parts of China in over 100 years). If we have enough cold vortex and typhoons this summer, I won't doubt this year would be the most active year in 21st century, surpassing 2005 (also a crazy tornado year for China).If We don't, however, things might be a little interesting
 

eric11

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If there’s one thing I’ve learned this year, it’s that China could really use a much more comprehensive system of hi-res radar sites, severe weather forecasters, and regional tornado damage survey teams. It’s just so active in terms of significant tornadoes!

While this is undoubtedly an above average season for China, I strongly believe it to be one of the most tornado prone areas outside of the US. I think that we’re seeing more of what goes on there tornado wise as rural areas gain access to social media, language barriers become less of an issue, and the government is likely more forthcoming (maybe?) about natural disasters. I have similar suspicions regarding tornadoes in Russia.

But even looking back over previous years, it’s apparent that strong to violent tornadoes just aren’t that rare in that region. There’s Khashaat 2014 (EF4), Foshan 2015 (EF3), Beijing 2012 (EF3), Wancheng 2016 (EF3), Kaiyuan 2019 (EF4), Chifeng 2017 (EF4), Funing 2016 (EF4), Suzhou 2020 (EF3) and many others. Tornadoes of this caliber are just not all that uncommon in China.

Also, as another poster mentioned, Chinese tornado season peaks in July and August. They’ve got a long way to go still.
Yes, tornadoes like what occurred yesterday would have easily been ignored in early times even a few years ago, but thank to mass media, we're able to have a glimpse of how strong these rural monsters could be, and it make me wonder if Chinese did have tons of tornadoes like this in early 80s, 90s(that's an active Chinese tornado period), huh...only God knows
Found more tree damage near a small county road where the tornado might have been crossed, and these Trees are definitely hardwood
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ground scouring can be seen here, it seems that the tree far way suffered much more severe damage.Also would like to know where the tornado had been since the ground scouring mark ended near the mountain
IMG_20210703_183504.jpg IMG_20210703_182016.jpg
 

eric11

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Some new pics come out from the CCTV, this monster might have completely torn out a high voltage tower and threw it away, still had no clues about how far the tower had flown. But it's some DI which could place the toenado as an high-end EF4 even EF5.There're only two cases which high voltage tower was completely thrown as far as I can remember , now here's the third
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MNTornadoGuy

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Some new pics come out from the CCTV, this monster might have completely torn out a high voltage tower and threw it away, still had no clues about how far the tower had flown. But it's some DI which could place the toenado as an high-end EF4 even EF5.There're only two cases which high voltage tower was completely thrown as far as I can remember , now here's the third
View attachment 9982
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Transmission towers being ripped out of the ground and being tossed long distances is something that only a few tornadoes have accomplished such as 2010 Bowdle. Though I don't see it getting anything higher than low-end EF4 due to the lack of higher-capable DIs unless if it hit some homes.
 
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