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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

Richardjacks said:
I have had little time to look at things.....selling my hone and moving, so it's crazy for me right now.
If nam is coming in slower, I am pretty sore the low will be well occluded and drier and warmer air will rotate in ahead of the cold air. If not, there could be trouble, but juat the way this has been looking, my bet is an occlusion with maybe some hailers.
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Yeah it's a good 3 hours slower on the NAM lol.

Let's hope your right that it does occlude, or we may have a pretty dangerous event on our hands.
 
Can't attach images atm, but large area of elevated SCP values across E AL and W GA on the 00Z NAM.
Edit: there we go. Also attached sounding from my neck of the woods.
1677639051103.png1677639027954.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
@Richardjacks check the NAM. very high end values with decent (not the best) low level backing. The low pressure does occlude around midnight thursday though. View attachment 18372
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Yes very impressive...assuming it is correct with little occlusion with that wound up surface low with slow moving cold core low. I have seen it many times...maybe not this time, but experience tells me there is a considerable chance.
 
SREF pops a pretty expansive corridor of favorable conditions for tornadoes tomorrow evening, going so far as to paint a small region of values at/over 75 at 03Z.
1677639781858.gif1677639791999.gif
 
Clancy said:
SREF pops a pretty expansive corridor of favorable conditions for tornadoes tomorrow evening, going so far as to paint a small region of values at/over 75 at 03Z.
View attachment 18376View attachment 18377
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This is the timeframe I am more concerned about for north and central Alabama
Yes forcing is subtle but storms will have lots of space
 
Richardjacks said:
This is the timeframe I am more concerned about for north and central Alabama
Yes forcing is subtle but storms will have lots of space
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Yeah, I was hoping people would start paying attention to tommorows threat more, wouldn't be surprised if they went ahead and did the enhanced corridor like they were mentioning in the discussion (SPC)., you can have some pretty intense tornadoes on warm fronts like this, I feel like it'll catch people off guard if it ends up going on and producing a ef3 or ef4 or something and doing damage.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Yeah, I was hoping people would start paying attention to tommorows threat more, wouldn't be surprised if they went ahead and did the enhanced corridor like they were mentioning in the discussion (SPC)., you can have some pretty intense tornadoes on warm fronts like this, I feel like it'll catch people off guard if it ends up going on and producing a ef3 or ef4 or something and doing damage.
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Yes, I feel like the ceiling is fairly high but also very conditional. Warm fronts can be a real menace this time of the year.
 
Kinda doubt a moderate will be issued for the day 3 threat by the next update. Too much uncertainty the latest models added more questions it seems.
 
One thing I noticed on the 00z HRRR was training of storms across more of North MS between 5pm Wednesday through 6pm Thursday. I wouldn't be surprised to see the WPC expand the Slight/Moderate Risk for Excessive rainfall further south as well as extending the Flood Watch into more of North MS.
 
JPWX said:
One thing I noticed on the 00z HRRR was training of storms across more of North MS between 5pm Wednesday through 6pm Thursday. I wouldn't be surprised to see the WPC expand the Slight/Moderate Risk for Excessive rainfall further south as well as extending the Flood Watch into more of North MS.
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Flooding often manages to be the sneaky threat with a lot of these systems.
 
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