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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

RollTide18 said:
What are you thinking for South Alabama with this threat? Timing seems to be a big factor.
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I'm going to hold off on answering that, I'd reference you to somebody more knowledgeable @mattdanielwx @Fred Gossage . The situation for Friday is pretty fluid, check back tommorow the forum may have some better answers. I think it's too early personally to say what will happen for Alabama on Friday.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm going to hold off on answering that, I'd reference you to somebody more knowledgeable @mattdanielwx @Fred Gossage . The situation for Friday is pretty fluid, check back tommorow the forum may have some better answers. I think it's too early personally to say what will happen for Alabama on Friday.
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Fair enough, just seems rather odd that the NAM for instance is showing just a line of showers in my part of the state.

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_48.png
 
RollTide18 said:
Fair enough, just seems rather odd that the NAM for instance is showing just a line of showers in my part of the state.

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_48.png
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I wouldn't really focus on the line as much so as to what the environment will be, the environment will potentially support a robust severe/tornado storm threat. The issue we have with this system for our area (Alabama into Georgia) is that we will probably have to get into the 48 hour range before our area can really nail down what the threat or threats are and when and how. The Nam can't see the finer details of the atmosphere, I think it doesn't allow convection in it's model runs not 100% sure. When we get into that 48 hour range with the WRF models and the HRRR barely getting in range on the long range runs we can really start to figure out with some confidence how things evolve.

In my personal opinion south Alabama will have a chance at a robust severe weather event but the finer details can't be determined yet.
 
Simulated reflectivity even on CAMs can be a useful tool but certainly can't be taken as exact forecasts of what radar imagery and convective intensity will look like at a given time, especially this far out; the overall environment is definitely the more important thing to focus on
 
This thursday event truly comes in view on the long range HRRR tonight at around 7 or 8 o'clock.
The 3km nam has issues lol.. so id trust the long range HRRR and WRF the most, the WRF comes out as well tonight.
 
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