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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

Clancy said:
Sounding off the 18Z NAM for East-Central AL, valid 18Z Friday. Not loving the look of that.
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Kinda wondering if we are inching closer and closer to a lesser but still significant outbreak for our area.

I wish Mr Fred would do a write up on here or some of the other respected meteorlgists, I'm starting to suspect our pagers are broken lol
 
Clancy said:
Something to keep close eyes on carefully regardless.
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Definitely, I can't recall a 3 days period in the south where there was a chance for significant weather consecutively, we have our two day events that sweep across lol but I tell you....

I've got some major severe weather fatigue, I hope the south ends for season for the south after this spell.
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
Yea I'm most likely targeting Tunica,MS/Lula,MS tmrw night. I'll have an East option down hwy 4.

May go over to Marvell, Arkansas if timing is right to see something during daylight and cross back over at Helena bridge. Latest 18z HRRR run shows storm in Marvell at 6pm and Tunica at 7pm. That could be bumped up an hour or 2 over the next few runs.

Hopefully this storm swath doesn't keep trending North towards Memphis. I would rather it stay down in the Delta since theres less people and its wide open. Trying to chase a tornado in the Memphis Metro around 5-7pm just sounds like a nightmare.
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It is. I have done it number times
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Just seems like it lol, atleast trend wise. I ain't looked at it too much cause I'm more focused on tomorrow's threat but I will later tonight when the 00z model suites comes out
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I do think Memphis area parts west Tennessee get into some good action late Thursday night coming out of the delta area …. Seem trends been little north today
 
Sorta. Here's the AFD: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLZK&e=202302282004

Forecast mid-level lapse rates 6.5-7.5 C, with CAPE values 1000-1700+ J/kg and bulk shear ~70 knots indicate the environment will continue to support strong updrafts with organized supercells. Forecast soundings indicate the environment supports tornado development, depicting curved hodographs with SFC-1km SRH 400+ m2/s2, SFC-3km SRH ~450 m2/s2 (greater than 300 m2/s2 are usually found in environments that produce violent tornadoes), and LCLs less than 1000m with substantial low-level moisture (PWATs ~1.5 in) reducing the likelihood of updrafts getting cut off by cold outflows. Additionally, BRN values between 10-15 indicate ideal balance between CAPE and shear for supercells and possible tornado development. SPC has highlighted the southern two-thirds of the CWA under an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with a marginal-slight risk over northern portions of the CWA.​
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Kinda wondering if we are inching closer and closer to a lesser but still significant outbreak for our area.

I wish Mr Fred would do a write up on here or some of the other respected meteorlgists, I'm starting to suspect our pagers are broken lol
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I am sure we will hear from Fred once he has something definite that he can say I don't think he's very much for talking about conjecture and maybe's. He's probably really busy too.
 
Austin Dawg said:
I am sure we will hear from Fred once he has something definite that he can say I don't think he's very much for talking about conjecture and maybe's. He's probably really busy too.
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Probably so, his area might be affected by some significant hail storms possibly tornadoes tommorow night, I'm wondering what his opinion on that one is. I'm pretty sure he's in the Huntsville jurisdiction correct?
 
If I'm not mistaken GFS 18z seems a bit of a downgrade which is good news. But at this range when globals become less relevant I don't really know if that matters much. We will see - CAMS coming fully into range should be useful tomorrow.
 
UK_EF4 said:
If I'm not mistaken GFS 18z seems a bit of a downgrade which is good news. But at this range when globals become less relevant I don't really know if that matters much. We will see - CAMS coming fully into range should be useful tomorrow.
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Yesterday’s 18Z featured a much better configuration for multiple EF2+ families on Friday. There was less occlusion and more directional shear on that run:

Ideal-Wavelength.png

Ideal-Wavelength-2.png


In short, the trough was broader-based and more negatively tilted on yesterday’s 18Z than today’s.
 
akt1985 said:
What is it looking like Thursday during the day driving from Huntsville to Birmingham? My mom has to take my sister to a doctor’s appointment.
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You should be good, Alabama's threat is mainly Friday, you may have a shower or two and a rumble of thunder, but it looks good for that day.
 
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