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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

Remember Jackson radar is still down until Friday. They usually finish these upgrades a few days early, so I except it be up and running by Thursday night.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Likely everybody from east Texas to North Carolina will see severe weather lol, nothing's shifting east man, similar in scope to easter 2020... Not sure wether it'll hold its glass up to that event; time will tell I really forgot how historic that event was so I'm not gunna say this event could surpass that one or meet it. I was questioning it earlier if it could beat out easter 2020 but who knows I shouldnt compare to any event because each event is unique in its own way..

This event could be a major severe event that only happens at night for a majority of the deep south, hopefully it doesn't but it's not out of the real of possibility.
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Yeah, synoptically speaking, it’s starting to check those boxes you look for. So I’m excited to see how the modes trend during the coming week.

As James Spann said though, it’s the small scale stuff, the mesoscale, that can determine the severity of an outbreak. My favorite example is the MCS on the morning of 4/27 laying down that thermal boundary. Smithville, Phil Campbell/Hackleburg, and the Marion tornado fed off that boundary to a very devastating effect. Although on the flip side, those earlier MCS and QLCS could’ve kept the northern area (TN, KY, WV) from getting in on the action that day to a more severe extent than they already did.

Dotted line indicates the approximate location of that boundary.


1677467782526.png
 
I’ll check that out thanks for linking @Equus

Looking at the latest GFS run and soundings for the 3rd/4th, those LLLRs around Arkansas, N Louisiana and West Mississippi aren’t really anything to write home about (I usually like to see 6.2+ but that’s just my own personal thing) and it’s only one factor.

This has a nice broad warm sector though so I’m interested in seeing how the instability progresses this week.

Some of those readings as it “marches to the sea” over SC, W GA, and NC are pretty eye catching.
 
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00Z GFS looking a bit spooky for E AL and GA. Slowed down progression and has storms over the area 15-18Z. Hoping it doesn't continue to trend in that direction.
 
prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ov.png

Just wow.....
 
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...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4...
A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be
strong. Available guidance is in ample general agreement with the
east/northeastward-ejection of an upper trough from the southern
Rockies early Thursday to the Ozarks/ArkLaTex by late Thursday
night. Owing to a stalling/decaying front early this week,
respectable low-level moisture will exist across much of the Deep
South in advance of this approaching upper-level system and its
related intense deep-layer wind field. Current thinking is that this
severe potential should steadily increase across central/eastern
Texas and possibly southeast Oklahoma during the day. This risk
should only increase/further organize into Thursday evening across
the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually
the Tennessee Valley late Thursday night.
 
Interesting tidbit from the overnight AFD from FFC:

The next significant weather system begins to come together on
Thursday night/Friday morning as a deep, stout shortwave digs
into the Southern Plains. This shortwave will rapidly organize a
strong surface low pressure system, with organized frontal
boundaries that is progged to be centered somewhere around
the mid/lower Mississippi River Valley on Friday morning.
Compared to yesterday, the low pressures progression has risen
significantly towards the North and is beginning to show signals
of occlusion by the time the front reaches the NW corner of the
forecast area on Friday morning, which may undercut the potential
severity of the system with more limited upper-level support,
surface convergence, and instability than previously forecast.
(This change is similar to the frontal passage and severe threat
that this coming system on Monday has undergone) However,
significant values of severe parameters in regards to low- and
deep-level shear and moisture continue to be prevalent. Despite
some model uncertainty on timing and positioning, a 15% Convective
Outlook had been issued by SPC, based on the potential severity
of this system, and will need to be monitored closely through the
week.
 
keithGA said:
EHI from the 06z GFS. @KevinH this thing is hitting you and I at the wrong time.
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So far I am not concerned BECAUSE my area is not even in any risk category. That is why I was saying I hope the risk area doesn’t shift EAST.

Where in GA do you live? I am right on the AL/GA border (Columbus, GA).

I will take some rain, lightning and wind (as long as it is not ROTATING lol)
 
KevinH said:
So far I am not concerned BECAUSE my area is not even in any risk category. That is why I was saying I hope the risk area doesn’t shift EAST.

Where in GA do you live? I am right on the AL/GA border (Columbus, GA).

I will take some rain, lightning and wind (as long as it is not ROTATING lol)
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I'm about 40 miles east of ATL. The current SPC D5 encompasses the entire state.
 
The euros almost non occlusion as well as the slowing trend like the GFS is pretty concerning for a prime time event for Alabama and Georgia for the day 5
 
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