Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday)

[Kory]

12z nam is confirming what the GFS has been showing in regard to little if any coastal convection on Saturday...it does show some on Friday-if that is underdone, then there may not be much on Saturday, or there could be a longer recovery mode. Otherwise, anyone care to chime in on the risk of long tracked tornadoes later Saturday?

What the NAM shows shouldn't disrupt WAA. Very scattered convection with no cold pool (I.E., not an organized complex). IF you take the NAM verbatim toward the end of the run, and extended it through Saturday night, it looks substantial. But that is the long range NAM which you should use with caution.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 12z GFS run is on its way. There's been an uptick in instability over the last 3 runs.

 

[stormcentral]

Anxiously awaiting the GFS run.

 

[Kory]

GFS coming in with that piece of PVA that runs ahead of the main trough. Kinda mucks up wind fields at least for Saturday for areas outside of the Gulf Coast.

 

[Richardjacks]

GFS coming in with that piece of PVA that runs ahead of the main trough. Kinda mucks up wind fields at least for Saturday for areas outside of the Gulf Coast.

yep, Saturday just doesn't look as potent in this run...let's see what Sunday looks like. wow surface td's dramatically drop off early Sunday...hmmmm

 

[stormcentral]

So whats the verdict this run for sat/sun? Anxiously awaiting...

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

So things are trending more stable?

 

[Kory]

GFS is significantly less potent for AL outside the Gulf Coast regions. We'll have to see how the rest of the 12z runs go.

Might as well have 2 troughs on the GFS. 500mb is trash.

 

[Richardjacks]

So whats the verdict this run for sat/sun?

gfs looks alot like the euro...severe would be far south on sunday...if 18z run agrees, there will be some forecast changes.

 

[stormcentral]

Forbes updated forecasts. Now has a torcon of 3 for saturday across AL, GA to the borders of TN. Shifted threat E on sunday. So much difference already.

 

[Kory]

UKMET continues to advertise a notable Saturday threat across Dixie, with Sunday's threat SE of AL more towards Southern GA/FL.

 

[GTWXAlum]

GFS trending towards the Euro? Shocked I tell you!

 

[Kory]

Still some glaring disparities between GFS and other guidance though this 12z run. GFS really closes this thing off (which would decrease the inland expanse of the threat). CMC/UKMET/NAM keep it all an open trough, which decreases the chance of an explosion of junk convection and allows warm sector to expand further inland. 72-96 hours from the main core of the threat....still some adjustment can be and will be made.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Yeah, seems like the 12z GFS has gone towards the euro there. Seems to confine the greater risk to the southern part of the area.

Models never make it easy.

 

[WesL]

Please Make Note That Two Severe Weather Event Threads Now Exist. This is the thread for the 1/21 - 1/22 (Saturday-Sunday) event. Please see Severe Weather Threat 1/19-1/20 (Thursday - Friday) thread for the more immediate threat information.

 

[Kory]

00z Euro did have a Saturday afternoon/evening threat. So GFS is all alone in that regard of very little Saturday activity. We'll see what the 12z does as it has just initialized.

 

[stormcentral]

Waiting on the EURO. So much still unclear.

 

[Kory]

Euro agrees is Saturday or Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency for most of Dixie. It has a strong LLJ into Saturday with a surging warm sector. The Sunday threat is still confined to SC/Southern GA/FL.

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

I believe the trees around here are starting to bud. Not sure I have seen that in Jan before.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I believe the trees around here are starting to bud. Not sure I have seen that in Jan before.

Yes, but how much are the crickets chirping?