• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We would love for you to become a part of our community.
    Take a moment to look around and join the discussion.
    CLICK HERE TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday) (1 Viewer)

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
12z nam is confirming what the GFS has been showing in regard to little if any coastal convection on Saturday...it does show some on Friday-if that is underdone, then there may not be much on Saturday, or there could be a longer recovery mode. Otherwise, anyone care to chime in on the risk of long tracked tornadoes later Saturday?
What the NAM shows shouldn't disrupt WAA. Very scattered convection with no cold pool (I.E., not an organized complex). IF you take the NAM verbatim toward the end of the run, and extended it through Saturday night, it looks substantial. But that is the long range NAM which you should use with caution.
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
735
Location
Hoover, Al
GFS coming in with that piece of PVA that runs ahead of the main trough. Kinda mucks up wind fields at least for Saturday for areas outside of the Gulf Coast.
yep, Saturday just doesn't look as potent in this run...let's see what Sunday looks like. wow surface td's dramatically drop off early Sunday...hmmmm
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
GFS is significantly less potent for AL outside the Gulf Coast regions. We'll have to see how the rest of the 12z runs go.

Might as well have 2 troughs on the GFS. 500mb is trash.
 

stormcentral

Member
2000th Post
Messages
143
Location
Chattanooga, TN
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Forbes updated forecasts. Now has a torcon of 3 for saturday across AL, GA to the borders of TN. Shifted threat E on sunday. So much difference already.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
UKMET continues to advertise a notable Saturday threat across Dixie, with Sunday's threat SE of AL more towards Southern GA/FL.

 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Still some glaring disparities between GFS and other guidance though this 12z run. GFS really closes this thing off (which would decrease the inland expanse of the threat). CMC/UKMET/NAM keep it all an open trough, which decreases the chance of an explosion of junk convection and allows warm sector to expand further inland. 72-96 hours from the main core of the threat....still some adjustment can be and will be made.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
00z Euro did have a Saturday afternoon/evening threat. So GFS is all alone in that regard of very little Saturday activity. We'll see what the 12z does as it has just initialized.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top