Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

[warneagle]

Here's LCH at 12z, in case you're wondering what's waiting upstream of the main threat area.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

1630Z expansion of the ENH/MDT into western AL/SLGT through most of the rest of AL incoming.

 

[Clancy]

1630Z expansion of the ENH/MDT into western AL/SLGT through most of the rest of AL incoming.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

CONSIDERATION WAS MADE TO INTRODUCE A
SMALL HIGH RISK,BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST RISK SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT YET IN PLACE AND
THERE IS NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON.

Too much uncertainty to go High.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC seems to be trying to account for the known tendency of long-track tornadic supercells to persist longer/further east than earlier environmental forecast soundings would have suggested. They mentioned this in the text of the previous outlook.

 

[UK_EF4]

CONSIDERATION WAS MADE TO INTRODUCE A
SMALL HIGH RISK,BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST RISK SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT YET IN PLACE AND
THERE IS NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON.

Too much uncertainty to go High.

Maybe a small high risk possible then in the next update, if confidence increases especially with moisture and where storms might form etc, but obviously far from guaranteed

 

[xJownage]

Still relatively capped in S MS/N LA. That cap will probably make things worse rather than better. WF surging north, thermals will overperform.

 

[HazardousWx]

Where is the warm front now? Where is a good map to see it?

 

[Equus]

Here's regional obs
Can see upper 60s dews into SW MS

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Watching the storm near Gilbert, LA.

 

[xJownage]

Where is the warm front now? Where is a good map to see it?

Here's a crappy drawing of about where it is as of 17Z.

 

[Equus]

This is an eerily quiet warm sector for 11am in a deep south event, getting more and more interested in today

 

[Clancy]

 

[KevinH]

This is an eerily quiet warm sector for 11am in a deep south event, getting more and more interested in today View attachment 15666

Keep watching

 

[HazardousWx]

Interesting....been watching that little storm.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Clancy]

FFC's morning AFD discussion mentions that while instability is forecast to be low for the area, cold season events sometimes have a tendency to defy expectations.

Ensemble Guidance continues to suggest that a swath of sfc-based
CAPE near 500 J/kg extending across much of the state will be present
by 12Z tomorrow while deterministic models show even less. Modest
mid-level lapse rates of around 6C/km are forecast as the upper
trough approaches. The real show stopper severe parameters are the
strong bulk shear of 50-80kts and SRH of 200-400+ m2/s2. All of this
combined lends confidence towards severe weather developing with
damaging winds as the main threat tomorrow morning. This threat is
also highlighted by SPC in their Day 2 Convective Outlook. It should
be noted that high shear low CAPE set ups during the cooler season
across the Southeast can be more impactful than expected. Thus, as
the convection becomes more organized during the morning hours and
becomes more linear in nature quick QLCS type tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. The main line of storms should be south of the CWA by
late tomorrow afternoon.

 

[Equus]

I don't think the stuff in NE MS is surface based yet, given that the warm front is still further south, could easily put out some hail and wind though

 

[UK_EF4]

PDS Tornado Watch incoming... seems quite likely at least to me that there could be a high risk through C Mississippi by next update.

 

[OHWX97]

Watch the cell passing east of Kinder/north of Elton, LA. It's really beginning to take off.