Maybe a small high risk possible then in the next update, if confidence increases especially with moisture and where storms might form etc, but obviously far from guaranteedCONSIDERATION WAS MADE TO INTRODUCE A
SMALL HIGH RISK,BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST RISK SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT YET IN PLACE AND
THERE IS NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON.
Too much uncertainty to go High.
Keep watchingThis is an eerily quiet warm sector for 11am in a deep south event, getting more and more interested in today View attachment 15666
Ensemble Guidance continues to suggest that a swath of sfc-based
CAPE near 500 J/kg extending across much of the state will be present
by 12Z tomorrow while deterministic models show even less. Modest
mid-level lapse rates of around 6C/km are forecast as the upper
trough approaches. The real show stopper severe parameters are the
strong bulk shear of 50-80kts and SRH of 200-400+ m2/s2. All of this
combined lends confidence towards severe weather developing with
damaging winds as the main threat tomorrow morning. This threat is
also highlighted by SPC in their Day 2 Convective Outlook. It should
be noted that high shear low CAPE set ups during the cooler season
across the Southeast can be more impactful than expected. Thus, as
the convection becomes more organized during the morning hours and
becomes more linear in nature quick QLCS type tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. The main line of storms should be south of the CWA by
late tomorrow afternoon.