Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

[tornado examiner]

Is activity gonna pick up hard soon?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Consistency on the HRRR runs I think is sufficient to say the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama are in trouble tonight.

 

[warneagle]

Is activity gonna pick up hard soon?

Probably not for another couple of hours, the warm front isn’t even onshore in LA yet. Once we get into the 0-1z timeframe the atmosphere should be more unstable further east. But the biggest sigtor threat was always gonna be overnight in AL/FL during the 6-9z timeframe.

 

[KevinH]

Is activity gonna pick up hard soon?

Nope… this event is just getting started.

Things won’t “pick up” until later this evening, overnight especially, through tomorrow.

 

[Clancy]

Consistency on the HRRR runs I think is sufficient to say the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama are in trouble tonight.

And the timing just... sucks. Going to be when a lot of people are deep asleep.

 

[tornado examiner]

I think it’s safe to say we’ll see a moderate risk issued….what time is the next outlook again?

 

[warneagle]

I think it’s safe to say we’ll see a moderate risk issued….what time is the next outlook again?

1z, so 8 pm EST

 

[wolfywise]

 

[Tennie]

I think it’s safe to say we’ll see a moderate risk issued….what time is the next outlook again?

01Z (or around 7:00 PM CST). Also, the SPC said that they wouldn't rule out an upgrade to Moderate around that time. However, that's still several hours out.

 

[KevinH]

1z, so 8 pm EST

Yep!

 

[Clancy]

It's half-moon island from LA over into the Mobile area right now.

 

[JPWX]

I know there were EF3s during the 4/27 pre-event QLCS, though I'm sure there's plenty of other examples. @JPWX would be a good bet at finding you some specific data.

Yeah. Give me a few days and I'll see what I can find.

 

[southmdwatcher]

Severe storms with large hail, now way out in southeastern Mississippi. MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3200 in SE Texas as well as large area of MLCAPE around or above 2000 j/kg lurking just offshore from Louisiana.

 

[Clancy]

Severe storms with large hail, now way out in southeastern Mississippi.

Yep, big big hail. It's also got a decent meso on it.

 

[Gail]

A friend from my hometown of Sturgis, MS posted this. It’s hailing there now.

 

[Clancy]

SPC watching LA closely for afternoon convection.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 20

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Gail]

A friend from my hometown of Sturgis, MS posted this. It’s hailing there now.
View attachment 23036View attachment 23037

Sturgis is at the red dot for perspective - not very close to the main threat area.

 

[KevinH]

FULL AFD update from Tallahassee:

 

[TH2002]

Hard to say, but possibly a TDS near Eagle Lake, TX?