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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

FULL AFD Update from Mobile (Strong language from them right out of the gate):
(I did not paste what they said about wind and flooding below. Please see the link above for the entire update.)
National Weather Service Mobile AL
345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

No mincing words here, our concerns for the overnight period tonight is serious. A incredibly impactful system has begun across our area and conditions will rapidly deteriorate throughout the
night. The potential for significant severe appears likely across most of the area including the potential for several significant tornadoes (EF-2+) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. While the current severe risk is at an enhanced, the ceiling of this environment could easily support a more significant severe threat and only minor confidence questions are holding back from higher severe probs. Nonetheless, these confidences may not improve until we see the white of its eyes and this event needs to be treated seriously. On top of significant severe, intense wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, minor to moderate coastal flooding, and extremely high
surf will all be possible overnight tonight. Coastal and wind impacts will likely be on the higher end for non-tropical systems for the Mobile area.

I`ll keep the synoptics short here as by this point its about small scale things and impacts. I think we all understand by this point there`s a rather strong system moving through.

Severe Threat...The makings of a significant severe thunderstorm threat looks likely tonight and into Tuesday morning. An intense LLJ will usher plenty of warm air and rich Gulf moisture
into the area with temperatures/dew points rising nearly 20 degrees over the next 18 hours. These factors will likely have no issue working instability inland across our area as the marine boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance continues to have around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to the highway 84 corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000 J/KG near the I-10 corridor. On top of the instability the shear
will be absolutely insane with 0-1 KM SRH values in the warm sector hovering around the 500 to 700 m2/s2 and with no surprise, forecast soundings continue to indicate very significant low
level curvature. Intense jet dynamics in the right entrance region of the upper jet will likely lead to widespread convective coverage beginning around midnight, likely overcoming the intense
shear allowing for storms to rapidly organize. This event will go from 0 to 100 very quickly as the upper jet moves in and the
intense low level jet increases. Rain will likely begin well before the severe weather arrives and things will likely go from showers and a few elevated thunderstorms to numerous severe storms in a couple hours. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

Expect two possibly three rounds of severe weather to be possible with rounds two and three capable of significant severe. The first of three rounds is a little more conditional as the marine
boundary moves inland. Given the shear environment, relatively low freezing level heights and deep EL`s, elevated storms would be
possible with some hail probably around 1 inch in diameter. This will likely occur prior to midnight and in the grand scheme of things this threat is a mole hill compared to the mountain ahead.

The second round is when things will begin to rapidly go downhill as the clock strikes midnight (or around that time). Recent high res-guidance continues to uptrend in the possibility of a few
discrete to semi-discrete supercells developing along a confluence band ahead of the main line as the marine boundary lifts north shortly around midnight or just after. Given the shear environment and the boundary, this environment would be more than supportive of strong tornadoes and if these cells truly are able to take full advantage of the environment then the ceiling may be
higher. The big question for higher end potential is can these storms sustain themselves with a lot of cell interactions, intense shear, modest but quickly increasing instability and stay within the optimal boundary spot to remain tornado producers.
Unfortunately, some of our strongest tornadoes locally have occurred in environments along these marine boundaries and warm fronts when they are able to sustain themselves within the
optimal boundary mode. While we are still unsure about this potential, the high impact nature of this period warrants great concern and if confidence continues to increase this would likely be the driving force into any potential severe upgrades heading
into the evening.

Then final punch will arrives shortly after round two in the 2 am to 8am timeframe in the form of a rather strong QLCS. This heavily forced squall line will only intensify as the upper jet overspreads and the LLJ increases. The combination of strong
kinematics and low level instability with 0- 3km cape values likely approaching 100k/kg or more will support strong vertical stretching in an incredibly rich vorticity environment. This
environment will truly peak east of I-65 across the western Florida Panhandle and into south central Alabama. Based off recent research this environment will be primed for QLCS tornadoes and given the upper echelon shear environment, strong QLCS tornadoes (EF-2+) could be possible. Along with the tornadoes, strong damaging winds will also be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70
mph given 850 and 925 mb winds will already be high. This has the potential to be a rather intense severe event occurring overnight.

This is about as serious as it gets across our area with respects to impacts. Please remain weather aware tonight and have an emergency plan in place. Be sure to have a way to receive
warnings that will wake you up and quickly go to your safe place. Trust us we do not want to be issuing tornado warnings at 4 am either and hopefully things find a way to pan out to the better. We will be right here with you through the night!
 
The second round is when things will begin to rapidly go downhill
as the clock strikes midnight (or around that time). Recent high
res-guidance continues to uptrend in the possibility of a few
discrete to semi-discrete supercells developing along a
confluence band ahead of the main line as the marine boundary
lifts north shortly around midnight or just after. Given the shear
environment and the boundary, this environment would be more than
supportive of strong tornadoes and if these cells truly are able
to take full advantage of the environment then the ceiling may be
higher. The big question for higher end potential is can these
storms sustain themselves with a lot of cell interactions,
intense shear, modest but quickly increasing instability and stay
within the optimal boundary spot to remain tornado producers.
Unfortunately, some of our strongest tornadoes locally have
occurred in environments along these marine boundaries and warm
fronts when they are able to sustain themselves within the
optimal boundary mode. While we are still unsure about this
potential, the high impact nature of this period warrants great
concern and if confidence continues to increase this would likely
be the driving force into any potential severe upgrades heading
into the evening.
Click to expand...

The bolded suggests they are implying violent tornado potential.
 
KevinH said:
For what it’s worth, I added the bold, not them lol

I would not expect violent tornadoes unless they upgrade to MOD or even HIGH. Things are still up in the air and they aren’t sure if they will pull the trigger.
Click to expand...
Don't need a mod or high for violent.

Just know the potential is there, if the environment is realized to the fullest you have a chance for one or two.

This is one heckin chonkers of a environment lol
 
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