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So when's the moderate risk for the coastline going to come out? It's inevitable lol
The last D2 already came out, so tomorrow’s D1 should be MOD if they upgradeSo when's the moderate risk for the coastline going to come out? It's inevitable lol
One thing I've noticed in lower instability events is that sometimes very high vertical velocity, (synoptic lifters, mesoscale features) can negate some of the lack of instability. Sure you'll end up with a wispy tornsdo but it'll be rather strong. It's always a hard medium to figure out whats enough, skip talbot has hit the nose on some of these issues and really cashed out on days where many people wouldn't chase due to questionable mositure.This is a tricky forecast. Another one of those highly conditional setups where the shear is there for something very bad, IF a storm or two can find a sweet spot of "just enough" instability to keep the updraft from being sheared apart. The majority of these don't produce, but when they do...
...reminds me of the Sunset Beach, NC high-end EF3 of February 15-16, 2021 that killed three people, touching down in the middle of the night, with no watch or warning issued until it was already in progress. Sufficient instability wasn't expected to exist on land as a surface low and associated fronts moved up the coast, but just a small pocket was enough with the other parameters in place near the triple point that night.
It's his own formula for 0-100 meters,That calculation of STP, amongst other things, looks very off.
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This sounding from 18z HRRR for Houston TX is nucking futs.
Yep definitely. We have seen time and time again what extreme low level shear (which I think is fair to say we have present tomorrow) can do to a QLCS. I doubt this time will be much different to be honest.I probably wouldn't go 15% yet at least for supercell tornado potential. I don't think there is nearly enough confidence to go 15% for that. HOWEVER, I do think a 15% can verify for QLCS tors. More than everything, I think tomorrow can be a QLCS galore with the extreme shear present. Supercell threat seems too conditional for that to be the main reason for a moderate upgrade.
Best bet is EHI. When it's hard to or worried about contaminationThe "sweet spot" in this event is going to be so small, it's hard to get a representative CAM sounding of the pre-storm environment that's NOT convectively contaminated, because the environment that will fuel the storms advects in JUST ahead of them. Again, high Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency potential but high ceiling if it doesn't.