From Patreon: Good Evening!
First we'll run through what's happening currently and expectation during the overnight period then we'll talk about tomorrow.
As of 9pm this evening, a batch of heavy rain/embedded thunderstorms is progressing eastward from Arkansas and Louisiana into Mississippi. There are currently 3 tornado watches in effect. Tornado Watch #2 goes until 10pm this evening across eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Tornado Watch #3 goes until 3am tomorrow morning across southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and parts of the western MS delta area. Newly issued Tornado Watch #4 goes until 3am tomorrow morning across southern Arkansas, north-central/northwest Louisiana, and a small part of east Texas. Most of Arkansas, Northwest Louisiana, Northeast Texas, and Southeast Oklahoma remain in a "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather the rest of this evening along with a 10% Significant tornado hatch area. I do note that the Enhanced Risk has been nudged a bit further east into parts of west Tennessee and western MS. This current batch of storms should weaken overnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday as it proceeds into North MS. Other than strong gusty winds, areas east of Oxford, MS should not be concerned about severe storms tonight.
Tuesday:
The expectation is that this current storm line back over Arkansas will push through North MS by 10am tomorrow morning in a weakening state. Additional storms are expected to fire up around noon and through the afternoon/evening hours. Storm Timing For North MS: roughly noon through 10pm tomorrow evening with best timing for severe storms from 2pm through 9pm. Primary Threats: large hail to golf ball size, damaging winds to 70mph, tornadoes (few strong), heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (locally 4+), and scattered flash flooding. Greatest risk zone for severe storms including tornadoes tomorrow would be from Jackson MS up to Tupelo MS.
