and valid at 9pm tomorrow evening. I find it hard to believe that there wouldn't be more storms than the 00z 3km NAM is showing unless you have cloud cover issues. This current line of storms back west shouldn't overwork the atmosphere that much.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
KevinH
Member
Where was this sounding taken? Looks like a big CLEARING across MS and AL
CheeselandSkies
Member
Between Amory and Tupelo, MS.
HRRR shows pretty strong helicity over the unstable areas during that time frame.
KevinH
Member
Near Amory MS
KevinH
Member
Not sure what to think of a PDS sounding in a city within the slight risk area. Especially since Amory isn’t really close to the enhanced risk category.
Yea, I know we should not get caught up in risk categories, but that kind of sounding is not what I would expect.
We will see how tomorrow goes. I was going to stay up for the 06z D1 update, but I need to go to bed.
Thank you to everyone for the posting graphics, soundings, etc.
From Patreon: Good Evening!
First we'll run through what's happening currently and expectation during the overnight period then we'll talk about tomorrow.
As of 9pm this evening, a batch of heavy rain/embedded thunderstorms is progressing eastward from Arkansas and Louisiana into Mississippi. There are currently 3 tornado watches in effect. Tornado Watch #2 goes until 10pm this evening across eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Tornado Watch #3 goes until 3am tomorrow morning across southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and parts of the western MS delta area. Newly issued Tornado Watch #4 goes until 3am tomorrow morning across southern Arkansas, north-central/northwest Louisiana, and a small part of east Texas. Most of Arkansas, Northwest Louisiana, Northeast Texas, and Southeast Oklahoma remain in a "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather the rest of this evening along with a 10% Significant tornado hatch area. I do note that the Enhanced Risk has been nudged a bit further east into parts of west Tennessee and western MS. This current batch of storms should weaken overnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday as it proceeds into North MS. Other than strong gusty winds, areas east of Oxford, MS should not be concerned about severe storms tonight.
Tuesday:
The expectation is that this current storm line back over Arkansas will push through North MS by 10am tomorrow morning in a weakening state. Additional storms are expected to fire up around noon and through the afternoon/evening hours. Storm Timing For North MS: roughly noon through 10pm tomorrow evening with best timing for severe storms from 2pm through 9pm. Primary Threats: large hail to golf ball size, damaging winds to 70mph, tornadoes (few strong), heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (locally 4+), and scattered flash flooding. Greatest risk zone for severe storms including tornadoes tomorrow would be from Jackson MS up to Tupelo MS.
First we'll run through what's happening currently and expectation during the overnight period then we'll talk about tomorrow.
As of 9pm this evening, a batch of heavy rain/embedded thunderstorms is progressing eastward from Arkansas and Louisiana into Mississippi. There are currently 3 tornado watches in effect. Tornado Watch #2 goes until 10pm this evening across eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Tornado Watch #3 goes until 3am tomorrow morning across southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and parts of the western MS delta area. Newly issued Tornado Watch #4 goes until 3am tomorrow morning across southern Arkansas, north-central/northwest Louisiana, and a small part of east Texas. Most of Arkansas, Northwest Louisiana, Northeast Texas, and Southeast Oklahoma remain in a "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather the rest of this evening along with a 10% Significant tornado hatch area. I do note that the Enhanced Risk has been nudged a bit further east into parts of west Tennessee and western MS. This current batch of storms should weaken overnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday as it proceeds into North MS. Other than strong gusty winds, areas east of Oxford, MS should not be concerned about severe storms tonight.
Tuesday:
The expectation is that this current storm line back over Arkansas will push through North MS by 10am tomorrow morning in a weakening state. Additional storms are expected to fire up around noon and through the afternoon/evening hours. Storm Timing For North MS: roughly noon through 10pm tomorrow evening with best timing for severe storms from 2pm through 9pm. Primary Threats: large hail to golf ball size, damaging winds to 70mph, tornadoes (few strong), heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (locally 4+), and scattered flash flooding. Greatest risk zone for severe storms including tornadoes tomorrow would be from Jackson MS up to Tupelo MS.
TornadoFan
Member
Tornadic supercell south of Mayfield, KY.
gangstonc
Member
In Madison county, AL we are sitting at 70/64. Forecast was for 65/63 at 1 AM. That’s a significant temperature difference.
Austin Dawg
Member
This doesn't look very good.
F
Former Member 1430
Guest
From everything I see on the Cams a few things stand out to me. First is there doesn’t seem to be much discrete convection ahead of the front. Second is it appears the instability will reach well up into the TN valley. Third anything tornado related I don’t believe will be able to maintain long from the soundings I have seen. Seems to be a strong straight line event with maybe a few spin up tornadoes along the line. Any discrete cells into central and southern AL could be an issue but I just don’t see a big tornado threat here.
Attachments
Took the picture from Tyler sebree's post, a Montgomery meteorologist this is the 24 hour rotation plots by the HREF. 
KevinH
Member
Where did you see this post of his?
It was on Twitter
KevinH
Member
Oh TWITTER… I was looking on FB. Thanks lol
CheeselandSkies
Member
Tornado warning in southern Ohio, not even in the marginal risk.
KevinH
Member
Nature woke up and decided not to “follow the rules” and is choosing violence SMH