Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like the latest HRR

Cell heading for W Monroe LA has a nasty couplet.

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Looks like a little CC Drop, if not still a pretty dangerous couplet.

 

[Tennie]

Cell heading for W Monroe LA has a nasty couplet.

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You got that right!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Monre Louisiana now in the direct path of this nasty couplet, let's hope this stays off the ground.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Twin rotations with that Monroe cell. Both tight.

 

[Tennie]

The circulation's right over Monroe. The lowest beam from the nearest useful radar (Shreveport) is over 8,000 feet AGL there. If there's a tornado down, we might not know about it for some time, if at all.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Eek. Oklahoma.

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[Tennie]

On a different note, Ryan Hall has just reached one million YouTube subscribers tonight! Congratulations to him!

 

[Weatherphreak]

On a different note, Ryan Hall has just reached one million YouTube subscribers tonight! Congratulations to him!

I've started watching him over the past 6 months. He does a good job. Isn't an alarmist like a lot of these online mets are for clicks. Social Media is a wild thing. Hope he's making good $$$

 

[Clancy]

00Z HRRR shows a concerning amount of instability early Wednesday morning across AL/GA ahead of storms associated with the front.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Per SevereStudios on Facebook, there is damage in Jessieville, AR. Looks fairly superficial (trees, signs, athletic field lightpost and goalpost at the high school, etc) but still potentially dangerous if anyone was caught off guard.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

00Z HRRR shows a concerning amount of instability early Wednesday morning across AL/GA ahead of storms associated with the front.
View attachment 16407

Yeah the amount of waves the 00z hrrr showed for Alabama (my neck of the woods) is absurd, kinda think the hrrr is being pretty bullish long range HRRR will tend to do that sometimes once it comes into the short range HRRR and shows some of this stuff it'll be a rough day and night for the deep south.

 

[JPWX]

00z HRRR valid at noon tomorrow. 00z 3km NAM beginning to run.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

00Z HRRR shows a concerning amount of instability early Wednesday morning across AL/GA ahead of storms associated with the front.
View attachment 16407

00Z HRRR also shows a pretty prolonged discrete mode across MS/AL, things never really grow upscale into the late evening. Could be a rough day. SPC is gonna need to extend higher probabilities/categories further north if that holds up, as well.

 

[JPWX]

00Z HRRR also shows a pretty prolonged discrete mode across MS/AL, things never really grow upscale into the late evening. Could be a rough day. SPC is gonna need to extend higher probabilities/categories further north if that holds up, as well.

I agree. The HRRR has been adamant about breaking up or dissipating the line that's now back in Arkansas when it's moving through North MS. The 3km NAM has shown something similar too.

 

[Weatherphreak]

I haven't looked back through the pages but wonder if the enhanced gets pulled NW some with the slower timing and the back side redevelopment that is showing from Northern Alabama?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

00Z HRRR also shows a pretty prolonged discrete mode across MS/AL, things never really grow upscale into the late evening. Could be a rough day. SPC is gonna need to extend higher probabilities/categories further north if that holds up, as well.

I'd expect a large enhanced area with a decent sized moderate tommorow for portions of missippi into Alabama. If paying attention to SPC tendencies over the years has helped me that'll be the case.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

3K NAM, unlike the HRRR, seems reluctant to fire off cells in this rather volatile environment tomorrow afternoon.

 

[KevinH]

00Z HRRR shows a concerning amount of instability early Wednesday morning across AL/GA ahead of storms associated with the front.
View attachment 16407

What about the other “ingredients”?

 

[JPWX]

00z 3km NAM valid at 1pm tomorrow.

 

[KevinH]

3K NAM, unlike the HRRR, seems reluctant to fire off cells in this rather volatile environment tomorrow afternoon.

Where was this sounding taken?