Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 18-20th, 2023

[KevinH]

Possibly with the euros solution the GFS solution seems doubtful

Well we will just have to see in the coming days then won’t we? lol

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Yea not gonna lie my mindset is a little different after today. We can't count out any system until day of.....at least until forecasting models improve.

I had gotten used to making bold forecasts that ended up being right more than half the time. Today definitely brought me back down to Earth.

 

[MichelleH]

I have a feeling we need to take every possible threat from now through May seriously.

 

[MattPetrulli]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'll take divergence for 100 Alex. Lol (jeopardy reference)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Looks like one heck of a squall line directional shear is very linear, atleast on the euro it does, GFS is a completely different story. Looking for consistency between the globals

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Can we go ahead and sticky this thread? It's 5-6 days out.

 

[StormStalker]

Can we go ahead and sticky this thread? It's 5-6 days out.

Done.

 

[KevinH]

Done.

May I ask why? Only bc the models don’t seem to generally agree and the SPC hasn’t even highlighted any days this far out lol What am I missing here?

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Euro and GFS both show a front pushing through with Thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Still a long ways off but I think its safe to say that there will be at least a few storms that have severe potential in the United States on Wednesday. Just no way of telling how widespread yet. Might as well go ahead and get in front of it.

Already pulling some decent soundings from it.

 

[KevinH]

Euro and GFS both show a front pushing through with Thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Still a long ways off but I think its safe to say that there will be at least a few storms that have severe potential in the United States on Wednesday. Just no way of telling how widespread yet. Might as well go ahead and get in front of it.

Gotcha

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Just took a look at GFS and Euro Temperatures. It looks like there is going to be a decent sized warm sector, but doesn't have anything close to the cold air behind it like this last system had. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That January 19th system has a LOT of potential.... Just depending on the evolution of the the low.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z GFS is a pretty good look for a tornado/discreet threat may change, hopefully it does. 500mb placement is really good for westerlies , surface low is good placement for backed surface winds. The lack of cold front may aide in the discreet mode.

 

[KevinH]

12z GFS is a pretty good look for a tornado/discreet threat may change, hopefully it does. 500mb placement is really good for westerlies , surface low is good placement for backed surface winds. The lack of cold front may aide in the discreet mode.

For what areas? LA, MS, AL again?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

just a look at surface low position and 500mb ejecting.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

For what areas? LA, MS, AL again?

Missippi Alabama Georgia. Probably will change some still far off

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Id honestly be hard pressed to say this isn't the best tornado/discreet look so far synoptically than the last two events lol.

The last two events I should add that have broken the state record in total number of tornadoes in January all time for Alabama. And it's only the 13th.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

What's really worrying me is how on the 17th a surface low comes through and almost primes the engine ; thermodynamics wise for the major secondary low a day or two later.. just check the dewpoints.. I really hope people start shifting gears soon and start covering this event.