Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

[Tennie]

So I go off to work thinking that this storm will probably be a dud...then I come back from work to see a significant storm event has taken place. I'm reminded of that one Community meme where that one guy comes back with some pizza only to see a huge mess occurred while he was gone.

In all seriousness, though, this has been one Hell of a day, with a lot of damage, injury, and even some deaths. I can only hope that the people affected will be able to recover from this.

 

[buckeye05]

I thought debarking happened at ef4. Hmm lol my bad.

Doesn't it rely on the different type of trees though as well?

Idk I'm kindve torn it depends on the trees google it cause I know I've seen ef3 damage that has not debarked trees

You're totally right about that. I think you just may have misread my post. Debarking DOES mainly happen at EF4, and EF4 is typically the level where you start to see truly major debarking, with half or more of the bark removed. What I'm saying is the photos you shared from Twitter do not show any major debarking, so there's nothing to suggest potential EF4 damage in the pics. I'd say they show EF2, maybe EF3 if there was a 100% blowdown somewhere in that area (NWS Birmingham is really big on rating tornadoes that snap 100% of trees in the path as EF3, debarking or not, which I think is a really good practice).

In my experience of looking at the varying levels of tree damage, I'd say that EF3s usually don't produce debarking, and when they do, it's usually pretty minimal unless they are softwoods/pine trees. So to answer your question, yes, different types of trees do produce different severities of debarking. As a result, the hardwood tree scale goes up to EF4, while the softwood tree scale tops out at EF3.

 

[cincywx]

death total up to 6 in autauga county, with sheriff david hill stating there may be more currently not located (source: )

 

[Equus]

Was hoping we'd get away without a death toll since it took so long to confirm fatalities, but I hope we're not looking at a Beauregard situation where it grows rapidly once they get to and search rural homes; fingers crossed it stops there

 

[UncleJuJu98]

You're totally right about that. I think you just may have misread my post. Debarking DOES mainly happen at EF4, and EF4 is typically the level where you start to see truly major debarking, with half or more of the bark removed. What I'm saying is the photos you shared from Twitter do not show any major debarking, so there's nothing to suggest potential EF4 damage in the pics. I'd say they show EF2, maybe EF3 if there was a 100% blowdown somewhere in that area (NWS Birmingham is really big on rating tornadoes that snap 100% of trees in the path as EF3, debarking or not, which I think is a really good practice).

In my experience of looking at the varying levels of tree damage, I'd say that EF3s usually don't produce debarking, and when they do, it's usually pretty minimal unless they are softwoods/pine trees. So to answer your question, yes, different types of trees do produce different severities of debarking. As a result, the hardwood tree scale goes up to EF4, while the softwood tree scale tops out at EF3.

Good post! Yeah some of the ratings can be tricky especially in the woods. Easier with buildings to rate tornadoes.

Although I do think somewhere in that vicinity of north Montgomery there'll be some ef4 damage just based off some of the data and reports, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Was hoping we'd get away without a death toll since it took so long to confirm fatalities, but I hope we're not looking at a Beauregard situation where it grows rapidly once they get to and search rural homes; fingers crossed it stops there

That's one thing I'm worried about a LOT of roads are blocked from knocked down trees and there's lots of rural roads and areas that are hard to get to and check so it'll be a long drawn out process. Southern and South central Alabama have high concentrations of mobile homes so it's not ideal for a strong tornado

 

[buckeye05]

Good post! Yeah some of the ratings can be tricky especially in the woods. Easier with buildings to rate tornadoes.

Although I do think somewhere in that vicinity of north Montgomery there'll be some ef4 damage just based off some of the data and reports, we'll have to wait and see.

Oh yeah no doubt. The radar imagery was screaming "violent tornado" multiple times today. We won't know the full extent until tomorrow though. I'm almost certain that that there was at least one EF4 intensity tornado somewhere today, but if it hit anything substantial while at that strength so it can rated as such isn't clear yet.

 

[buckeye05]

Aerial video of damage in Selma. Looks to be about EF3 or so within the town itself.

 

[Equus]

Yeah Selma looks like a fairly large swath of major damage but I'm not seeing anything that stands out as being especially violent, it's dramatic damage with all the metal debris and unroofed houses and fires and a LOT of homes and businesses are totally lost but the damage to those small older homes looks high end EF2/maybe some EF3 in there; obviously we would be looking at a nasty death toll if it were much stronger in the town itself as most of those old homes are probably not up to code

 

[KevinH]

Today just goes to show you how complicated the weather is and it is not the exact science some people think it is.

I hope more people start to take the weather seriously and those affected can heal and recover VERY quickly.

I have said this before, you CANNOT live in one of the most tornado prone areas of the country (if not the world) and pretend that you don’t by dismissing or minimizing threats. MS and AL are the “Oklahomas of the Deep South”.

Most people have a smoke detector in their home even though their house will (hopefully) never catch on fire right. Severe weather is the same way if not more so. Although the chances of being struck by a tornado can be low, it only takes one (and a few seconds) to destroy someone’s life and at that point, somehow, the frequency become less important.

Severe weather is a double edge sword. You don’t want it to occur and cause damage and kill, but in order to study and learn from it, it needs to happen.

The sad thing is, from what I have seen and heard, most people do/will not take SVR Wx seriously unless and until it is too late.

Thoughts and prayers for those who have been affected and will be affected in the future (including next week potentially).

 

[GA Stormchaser]

This will be a fascinating case study. Pretty sure the expert and amateur consensus got this system wrong.

Folks saw things ticking up, especially over the last 24 hrs, but the tornado threat was secondary to the damaging straight line winds. And the tornadoes were going to be weak, super short lived and hard to warn for.

In the early morning hours when I saw several tornado and severe reports, I remembered something I heard James Spann say…. To the effect….Listen to the storms early, Watch what they are doing….they will tell you how the day will go. Probably butchered that, but the morning activity made me feel we were dealing with a different setup.

I love the fact that we sometimes get it wrong. It’s bad in todays case for the lack of early messaging, but I kinda like that as good as we are, there are still surprises.


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[Lake Martin EF4]

On another note quite a few people have turned on Ryan Hall. Apparently he disregarded a warning when it came out and whined about chasers not letting him use a photo.

 

[KevinH]

On another note quite a few people have turned on Ryan Hall. Apparently he disregarded a warning when it came out and whined about chasers not letting him use a photo.

Not a good look for him if that is the case…

Is there a link to what he said?

 

[GA Stormchaser]

On another note quite a few people have turned on Ryan Hall. Apparently he disregarded a warning when it came out and whined about chasers not letting him use a photo.

I think I saw both of those. Personally didn’t bother me one bit. I like his style and don’t expect perfection 100% of the time (kinda like my life). What bothers me more is a long track confirmed tornado, with only minor drop in radar presentation and FFC waits till it’s pretty much leaving the current warning polygon before issuing another warning. I expect a lot more from those folks.


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[KevinH]

I think I saw both of those. Personally didn’t bother me one bit. I like his style and don’t expect perfection (kinda like my life). What bothers me more is a long track confirmed tornado, with only minor drop in radar presentation and FFC waits till it’s pretty much leaving the current warning polygon before issuing another warning. I expect a lot more from those folks.


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Some people do not expect much from
FFC.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Still a continuous feed of damage reports and roads blocked in Alabama. Going to take a while to survey

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Moulton Alabama tornado rated ef1 or preliminary ef1 may still have more to survey

 

[UncleJuJu98]

33 tornado reports so far. For Alabama this will rank near the top 10 all time for Alabama when all is finished and done. It'll likely break into the top 3. In terms of tornado touchdowns etc. Weird how they count them.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Equus]

This concentration would be decently impressive even for a moderate/low end high risk day to be honest