Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

[KevinH]

I would be surprised to see them not upgrade to hatch. Soundings this morning have been quite impressive and it has been trending more discrete. Like what @andyhb said the 12z CAMs suite is quite impressive. Posting UH tracks to put it into simple terms

That first UDH is valid for Saturday?????

 

[MattPetrulli]

That first UDH is valid for Saturday?????

It's the end of the model run, the UH tracks are from today's event

 

[kcyalater]

eutaw circulation appears to be collapsing and cycling

 

[buckeye05]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the severe storm in the Hanceville, AL area goes tornadic later once it reaches the Fort Payne/Rainsville/Henegar vicinity. Something about the geography in that area make storms approaching from the SW start to spin.

 

[Argus]

65/62 right now.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

eutaw circulation appears to be collapsing and cycling

Cycling to grow a bigger mesocyclone it looks like.

 

[kcyalater]

Cycling to grow a bigger mesocyclone it looks like.

you may be right. it just tightened up a ton

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wow

 

[buckeye05]

I’d definitely keep an eye on the one near Meridian, MS as well. Has a meso, is robust, and has nothing to interfere with it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wow View attachment 16755

you may be right. it just tightened up a ton

Probably about to drop a strong nado

 

[buckeye05]

Yeah the Eutaw cell is far from done imo. Could be a persistent problem today based on what the CAMs suggested.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah the Eutaw cell is far from dons imo. Could be a persistent problem today based on what the CAMs suggested.

It's one of the few long track cells the cams have been showing so that's means later south Alabama may be in trouble unfortunately

 

[buckeye05]

It's one of the few long track cells the cams have been showing so that's means later south Alabama may be in trouble unfortunately

May end up in south Bham suburbs later if it stays together.

 

[Clancy]

SPC released an MD regarding that cell.

 

[kcyalater]

reflectivity on the eutaw cell is looking classic supercell right now. agree with buckeye the cell to the southwest could be big trouble

 

[kcyalater]

 

[cincywx]

It's one of the few long track cells the cams have been showing so that's means later south Alabama may be in trouble unfortunately

spc agrees

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL AL...FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...

VALID 121554Z - 121730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MOST FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A
TORNADO RISK IS FOCUSED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL
AL THROUGH 1130AM CST.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER WEST-CENTRAL AL TO THE EAST OF A
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WITH SEVERAL QUASI-DISCRETE UPDRAFTS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE WHEN MODIFYING FOR CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. IN ADDITION, AROUND 200-250 M2/S2 0-0.5
KM EFFECTIVE SRH IS INDICATED. GIVEN THIS OVERLAP OF
BUOYANCY/SHEAR, IT APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A
TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY ROBUST SUPERCELL.

 

[kcyalater]

video from spann on the eutaw cell is spectacular.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Looks like spinning super cells are popping up in East Mississippi. About to cross into Alabama. It's fixing to get busy.

 

[Clancy]

New Tornado Watch for parts of GA/TN.